October is coming to and end, which means that all the seasonal models have finished updating by now, and we can take a look at the latest forecasts for the upcoming winter.
Our previous winter post was very well received, since it did not only show the winter forecasts from September, but it also had an educational note, explaining what are (and aren’t) long range forecasts. We really recommend it, since it contains a lot of basic and general information on long range forecasts.
Winter 2019/2020 early look (September) and long range theory.
By popular demand, we have decided to expand our latest winter post into a few individual segments. We have had many requests to include more long range models and more charts. So, since it would all be too much for one post, we decided to put the whole article into a few segments, all listed below for your convenience.
We decided to take a look at the most well-known and technically advanced long range models available currently, from all around the world. They include different parameters, based on what was/is available from the original sources. The amount of material in total is overwhelming, so we have divided it into individual pages for better viewing and faster user experience.
ECMWF model – Winter 2019/2020 – Forecast from October
UKMO model – Winter 2019/2020 – Forecast from October
Meteo-France model – Winter 2019/2020 – Forecast from October
NCEP CFSv2 model – Winter 2019/2020 – Forecast from October
JMA model – Winter 2019/2020 – Forecast from October
JAMSTEC model – Winter 2019/2020 – Forecast from October
China-BCC model – Winter 2019/2020 – Forecast from October
Most models show a similar story overall, which can be a sign of confidence in the accuracy, but at the same time it can also mean that they are all grabbing onto some specific configurations/dynamics. If those dynamics then play out differently, than all the model forecasts can be a bit off in their forecast. That is why we need to look at as many different models that we can find, to compare them, and to find similarities and differences. Every modelling system is different, with their own set of errors and biases.
We will make another update in November, as we get close to winter, and all the long range models will have a better understanding of the season ahead, so stay tuned for more!
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