stratosphere Archives

Stratospheric warming UPDATE The warming phase is about to start this week. It will compress the Polar Vortex, reduce the core power and disconnect it from the troposphere!

January 27, 2020January 26, 2020 by Andrej Flis

The new stratospheric warming phase is set to start this week. It will greatly reduce the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex. Considering that we … Read more

Stratosphere watch A double stratospheric warming wave is starting to develop for the next two weeks, which could have implications for late February and Spring weather patterns!

December 20, 2020January 22, 2020 by Andrej Flis

The polar vortex usually reaches its peak strength in late December and early January. As we head further into January and February, the Polar Vortex … Read more

Monthly outlook The stratospheric polar vortex will survive all attacks and is coming at us with a vengeance! Late December and January are expected to be milder, with only brief cold episodes!

November 19, 2023December 11, 2019 by Andrej Flis

The stratospheric polar vortex is coming at us with a vengeance! It was under a lot of pressure lately and was fighting for its existence. … Read more

Weekly outlook A change in the sub-polar circulation is coming, as the tropospheric polar vortex tries to re-organize. Cold air and snow likely over Europe and the USA!

November 25, 2019November 25, 2019 by Andrej Flis

While the stratospheric polar vortex is getting ready for the strong temperature and pressure dynamics in the coming week, its tropospheric counterpart is trying to … Read more

Stratosphere warming watch UPDATE 20/Nov A powerful warming phase now to begin in 10 days! Temperature in the stratosphere over Siberia will rise for 40°C in a few days!

November 21, 2019November 20, 2019 by Andrej Flis

A strong new warming phase is getting closer, and is set to begin in 10 days! The final power and the later effects are still … Read more

Winter 2019/2020 FINAL November model forecast for the upcoming winter! Summary: Polar vortex collapse might be the make or break factor for many this winter!

October 4, 2020November 19, 2019 by Andrej Flis

November model calculations are done, and they are usually regarded as the final forecast for winter. December is already a winter month, so November forecasts … Read more

Stratosphere warming watch UPDATE 18/Nov A powerful new warming phase is coming in early December. Calculations now start showing a Sudden Stratospheric Warming event for 2019/2020

November 19, 2023November 18, 2019 by Andrej Flis

New model calculations are done, and they still show the powerful new warming phase coming in early December. Each new model calculation increases the likelihood … Read more

Stratosphere warming watch A powerful new warming phase is building for early December 2019. Stratospheric temperatures likely to raise over 30°C above normal, affecting the already weakened vortex!

November 19, 2023November 17, 2019 by Andrej Flis

The polar vortex is slowly but steadily losing its power. While the pressure waves are “attacking” the polar vortex, a new temperature wave is building … Read more