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A strong Category 1 Typhoon #KAMMURI is having occasional bursts of extremely intense deep convection, reaching cloud tops even below -90 °C again. Quite unusual to see so intense convection while the system is rather struggling to organize into a monster typhoon. However, Kammuri has been intensifying today and now appears to have a solid inner core structure and possibly ready for further intensification. As of 18 UTC today, the typhoon had maximum sustained winds of 80 knots / 92 mph / 150 km/h with a central pressure around 972 mbar. It is becoming increasingly likely Kammuri will undergo rapid intensification today and reach a solid Category 3 strength prior to landfall in the Camarines Sur province of eastern Philippines in the next 24-30 hours!


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A NEW UPDATE is online – KAMMURI is now a borderline Category 4 typhoon!

An incredible rapid intensification of typhoon #KAMMURI – now a borderline Category 4 just a few hours before making landfall near Legazpi City, Philippines!



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A couple of satellite images – extremely deep convection with cloud tops pushing temperature even below -90 °C. The overall picture of the typhoon is rather impressive with wide-open upper-level outflow across all quadrants. And also quite large compared to its next target Philippines.

Satellite imagery of Kammuri. Graphics: Himawari-8 satellite / NASA MODIS / RAMMB




Latest Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) analysis indicates Kammuri is having Dvorak number 4.4, while it even had a temporary ADT 5.3 a few hours ago as an incredible burst of deep convection occurred. 77 knots with near 975 mbar and supporting 55-70 miles radii of 50kt winds.

Advanced Dvorak analysis. Graphics: NOAA

Ocean Heat Content (OHC) forecast map reveals Kammuri is coming into very favorable sea surface conditions, just before it is making landfall in the Philippines tomorrow. This will surely support its further strengthening, with higher probabilities getting into the rapid intensification phase from now on.

Ocean Heat Content map. Graphics: RAMMB

The future track brings Kammuri due west towards Camarines Sur province of eastern Philippines in the next 24 hours or so, continuing towards west, passing just south of the capital Manila with its center, indeed gradually weakening over the islands. Once Kammuri is over the South China Sea, it is expected to turn SSW through mid this week but re-intensification is unlikely.

Kammuri’s forecast track. Graphics: JTWC

Stay tuned for further updates tomorrow!

See previous discussions:

Nov 29th update on the tropics – typhoon #KAMMURI continues towards Philippines



#KAMMURI has been upgraded to a Category 1 typhoon – models are consistent it will soon begin rapid intensification and head towards the Philippines



A new Tropical Storm 29W forms in the western Pacific – #KAMMURI is strengthening and could potentially become another Super Typhoon this weekend


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