One of the most impressive surprises lately was an unexpected and extremely rapid intensification of the tropical cyclone #Ambali in the West Indian Ocean yesterday. Ambali intensified from only a tropical depression to a violent Category 4+ tropical cyclone (actually borderline strength of Category 5 cyclone – 155 mph winds) in a 24-hour period and almost set a new world record of rapid intensification. The peak strength of 135 knots / 155 mph / 250 km/h was reached this morning, while Ambali is now already going through an eyewall replacement cycle (EWRC) and weakening. Further weakening is expected in the coming days as the system will be moving through less favorable (cooler) sea waters.

Here are Ambali’s 6-hour analysis in the past 36 hours – notice the 100 knots increase in 24 hours between 00 UTC yesterday and today!

  • 00 UTC: 35 kt
  • 06 UTC: 50 kt
  • 12 UTC: 70 kt
  • 18 UTC: 100 kt
  • 00 UTC: 135 kt
  • 06 UTC: 120 kt

Note: The rapid intensification of 100 knots in a 24-hour period almost reached the existing world record – hurricane Patricia (2015) intensifed 105 knots in 24 hours period.

Some of the very impressive satellite images of Ambali at its peak intensity this morning – really a textbook appearance of central density overcast (COD) of the eyewall with stadium effect also visible around the eye.



https://twitter.com/windyforecast/status/1202845235597983744

Cyclone Ambali continues moving SSW while weakening, notice the peak 135 knots intensity at the 00 UTC location update this morning. Amali of one of the four tropical systems ongoing in the West Indian Ocean today – there were even 5 systems two days ago. Dvorak analysis reveals the intensity of Ambali is already aorund 100 knots or even lower and should continue falling today.

Stay tuned for further updates if significant changes are expected.

See also:

A very impressive rapid intensification currently underway with Tropical Cyclone #Ambali in the South Indian Ocean – now an intense Category 3 cyclone!


A rare occurrence in the tropics – five (5) tropical systems are simultaneously ongoing in the West Indian Ocean today!


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