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The tropical activity in the West Indian Ocean has became busy this week as several tropical systems are ongoing. While a very intense Category 4+ cyclone #Ambali is ongoing east of Madagascar, another cyclone #BELNA (originated from the wave 02S) is strengethening north of Madagascar with expected landfall on the western parts of island on late Sunday, Dec 8th.

Satelite imagery of cyclone Belna reveal a well-organized tropical system with a healthy upper-level outflow. The potential is definitely there for further strengthening and tightening pressure gradient. Belna is located north of Madagascar while another very intense cyclone #Ambali is visible to its east.

Latest Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) analysis indicates cyclone Belna is a Category 1 system, packing winds of around 65 knots and central pressure around 987 mbar. Cyclone is gaining strength while moving SSW and should intensify further into at least Category 2 within the next 36 hours. 50 knots wind radii is extending 25-30 miles around the center in all directions with already 10-15 miles wind radii of 64 knots winds.

Cyclone Belna will be moving through some good ocean heat content energy today while coming into even better sea waters closer to Madagascar. This should allow Belna to strengthen more before making landfall in western Madagascar on late Sunday.

GEFS, JTWC and Meteo France forecasts of potential track for cyclone Belna, bringing it ashore in western Madagascar on Sunday evening, Ded 8th as a strong cyclone. Although the peak intensity seems to be expected tonight and tomorrow when cyclone could reach a strong Category 2 strength.

Stay tuned for additional updates this weekend as we’re closely monitoring the potential impact on Madagascar.

See also:

A very impressive rapid intensification currently underway with Tropical Cyclone #Ambali in the South Indian Ocean – now an intense Category 3 cyclone!


A rare occurrence in the tropics – five (5) tropical systems are simultaneously ongoing in the West Indian Ocean today!


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