As expected, the former Invest #96S along northeast Australia has intensified into a Category 1 Tropical Cyclone #Gretel. It is packing maximum sustained winds of 40 knots with the central pressure of 989 mbar. The system will be strengthening further while moving near New Caledonia over the next 48 hours (Today-Sunday and Monday), potentially even reaching northern New Zealand by mid next week.


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NEW UPDATE: Spectacular tandem of Tropical Cyclone #GRETEL and another cyclone. Gretel blasted New Caledonia with severe winds and torrential rainfall, now heading for Northern New Zealand

Spectacular tandem of Tropical Cyclone #GRETEL and another cyclone. Gretel blasted New Caledonia with severe winds and torrential rainfall, now heading for Northern New Zealand



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Satellite imagery reveal an impressive explosive storm around the center of the system, with very healthy upper-level outflow visible. The system is organizing and deepening.


Tropical Cyclone Gretel will head southeast, moving just south of New Caledonia today and tomorrow. Then, potential still exists it will approach New Zealand by mid next week.

Here is the GFS model guidance of the system until Tuesday:

A broad severe winds swath will also affect New Caledonia. A huge amount of rain is visible along Gretel’s path over the next 3 days:

We will keep you updated with further details over the next days – Stay tuned. See also previous discussions:

A Tropical Low #96P is intensifying along northeast Australia – should become a severe tropical cyclone while passing near New Caledonia over the weekend, then heads towards New Zealand next week


Two tropical waves near Australia – Invest #95P has the potential to become a Severe Tropical Cyclone towards New Caledonia next weekend