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Explosive intensification of Hurricane Milton, heads for destructive landfall in Florida on Wednesday

Tropical activity has ramped up significantly this month, with currently three hurricanes simultaneously ongoing – Kirk, Leslie, and the most important one – major hurricane Milton in the Gulf of Mexico. Milton is undergoing an explosive intensification, on its way to potentially becoming the 2nd Category 5 storm of the Atlantic Hurricane season 2024. Life-threatening impact is expected on Wednesday when Milton will make landfall in western Florida.

According to the recent NHC forecasts and weather model guidance, Milton could have a more destructive impact than Hurricane Helene 10 days ago. The latest potential track brings the storm’s landfall in western Florida, potentially around Tampa.

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There is a high risk of a catastrophic storm surge along Florida’s western coasts, with inundation as high as 10-12 feet above ground level. This surge will be combined with destructive waves and hurricane-force winds on Wednesday.

There is also a danger of significant flash floods across central Florida.

Milton is the ninth hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic season and the fourth major storm this year (after Beryl, Helene, and Kirk).

Hurricane Milton is forecast to make landfall on Wednesday evening as a major hurricane in west Florida.

This will be the fifth Gulf Coast hurricane landfall in 2024. In recent years, the following major continental US hurricanes have made landfalls in the US: Laura, Zeta (2020), Ida (2021), Ian (2022), Idalia (2023), and Helene (2024).

So far, there have been 13 tropical storms in the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, nine of which became hurricanes, and three were major hurricanes; storm Beryl, which occurred in early July, was a Category 5, Helene which made landfall in Florida’s Big Bend was a Category 4, and most recently, hurricane Kirk in the open central Atlantic also reached Category 4.

Hurricane Milton is forecast to continue rapid intensification before significantly impacting Florida Wednesday night.

Extremely hot, near-record-warm tropical sea waters remain, including the Gulf of Mexico

 

Marine heat waves have become more frequent and intense in recent years. This year, they are more persistent and spread over large areas. Waters are extremely hot, especially across the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean.

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The tropical central and western Atlantic regions remain well above normal as we are at the peak of hurricane season 2024. This comes after months of warmer-than-normal global seas, a hot summer, and a lack of storms until late September.

This leads to extremely warm seas, which remain around 3-4 °C above normal across the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf.

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One striking aspect is the so-called Ocean Heat Content (OHC), which measures the energy available in the waters that support deep convection in tropical storms and hurricanes. This year has been astonishingly high across the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean.

The following chart represents today’s western Atlantic OHC analysis. The extremely high values ahead of Milton’s track will help the hurricane rapidly intensify on Tuesday and early Wednesday before it nears Florida’s landfall.

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Rapid intensification means that winds significantly increase within a 24-hour period. On Tuesday, Milton is forecast to strengthen into a potentially Category 5 major storm.

Then, some model uncertainties remain regarding the intensity as Milton lands in Florida on Wednesday evening. Some models suggest it could be a Category 4, while some suggest a minor weakening before landfall.

According to some high-resolution weather models, the impact will be significant of at least Category 3 or 4 (or even five).

Explosively rapid intensification underway; concerning impact with destructive winds and life-threatening storm surge for Florida

 

On Monday morning, the satellite presentation became impressive, with a pinhole eye appearing in infrared and visible satellite imagery.

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Amazing pressure drops overnight, and correlated winds increase. The inner core of Hurricane Hilton is small but extremely powerful. The central pressure is rapidly deepening, and the wind field is intensifying. NOAA hurricane hunters found central pressure dropping 4-8 mbar per hour, which is rare and extreme.

Below is the flight penetration through Milton’s eyewall on Monday morning. The NOAA3 flight made two passes, and we can see the pressure was 951 mbar during the first pass and 947 mbar one hour later.

Recent flight level winds and dropsonde observations have confirmed Milton is already a Category 4 storm, with 150 mph winds and a central pressure of 940 mbar!

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Hurricane Milton will continue to intensify rapidly through Monday night into Tuesday while moving east to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico. The storm will turn northeast late Tuesday while crossing the favorable high ocean heat content area we discussed earlier.

This may allow the storm to maintain Category 4 or 5 strength while approaching Florida on Wednesday. Landfall is forecast to occur in the evening hours on Wednesday. Most weather models forecast peak landfall intensity at a high-end Category 3 or 4 storm.

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Potentially catastrophic hurricane-force winds are expected within Milton’s eyewall when they graze on Florida’s coast late Wednesday. Preparations to protect life and property should be completed early Tuesday before tropical storm conditions arrive.

Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, will penetrate well inland over portions of central Florida late Wednesday night, where Hurricane Warnings will soon be in effect.

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According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula will experience an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surges and damaging winds beginning Tuesday night or early Wednesday.

Storm surges and hurricane watches are now in effect for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula, and residents in that area should follow local officials’ advice and evacuate if told to do so.

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Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida today well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to the system expected later Tuesday through Wednesday night.

This rainfall will bring the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding and the potential for moderate to major river flooding. High-resolution models suggest that 12-15 inches will be possible across central Florida.

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Safety Preparedness during a Hurricane Season

 

Have a plan

 

The official hurricane season in the North Atlantic and the Caribbean starts on June 1st and ends on November 30th. This is when you and your family must be prepared by planning.

  • Write emergency phone numbers and keep them on the refrigerator or near every phone in your house. It would help if you also programmed them into your cell phone.
  • Prepare an emergency supply kit.
  • Locate the nearest shelter in your area and different routes from your home in an emergency. If shelter locations in your area have yet to be identified, learn how to find them before the event of a storm.
  • Pet owners: Take care of your pets at pre-identify shelters, a pet-friendly hotel, or an out-of-town friend or relative where you can take your pets in case of an evacuation. Local animal shelters can offer advice on what to do with your pets if you are asked to evacuate your home during a hurricane.

Learn the difference between a hurricane “Watch” and “Warning”

 

When you listen to the National Weather Service alerts on TV or radio or check for them online, there are two kinds of alerts:

  • A hurricane watch means hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 miles per hour [mph] or higher) are possible in a stated area. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) will announce hurricane watches 48 hours before they expect tropical storm-force winds (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) to start.
  • A hurricane warning is a more severe threat. This means that hurricane-force winds are expected in a stated area. NHC issued these warnings 36 hours before tropical-storm-force winds were expected in the area to give people enough time to prepare for the storm.

Check out the National Weather Service’s Hurricane Center for more information about hurricane watches and warnings. If you hear a hurricane watch or warning in your area, you can take steps to get ready.

Get your car ready to leave home if needed

 

Make sure your car is ready before the tropical storm or hurricane hits.

  • Fill the gas in your car’s tank.
  • Move cars and trucks into your garage or under cover.
  • Always keep an emergency kit in your car.

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If you don’t own a car, consider making plans with friends and family or call authorities to get a ride if you need to evacuate.

Get your family and pets ready

 

  • Go over your emergency plan with your family; understand everything.
  • Keep checking for weather updates about the storm. You can watch TV, listen to the radio, or check the NHC website online.
  • Call the hospital, public health department, or the police about special needs. If you or a loved one is older or disabled and won’t be able to leave quickly, get their advice on what to do.
  • Put pets and farm animals in a safe place.

 

Get your home ready

 

  • Clear your yard to ensure nothing could blow around during the storm and damage your home. Move bikes, lawn furniture, grills, propane tanks, and building materials inside or under the shelter.
  • Cover up house windows and doors. Use storm shutters or nail pieces of plywood to the outside window frames to protect your windows. This can help keep you safe from flying debris and pieces of shattered glass.
  • Be ready to turn off your power if you see flooding, downed power lines, or you have to leave your home. Switch your power off completely.
  • If you lose your water supply during the storm, fill clean containers with drinking water. You can also fill your sinks and bathtubs with water for washing.
  • Double-check your carbon monoxide (CO) detector’s battery to prevent CO poisoning.

 

Be ready to evacuate or stay at home

 

During a hurricane warning, always listen to authorities regarding whether you should evacuate or stay home.

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If a hurricane is coming, you may hear an order from authorities to evacuate (leave your home). Never ignore an order to evacuate. Sturdy, well-built houses may not hold up against a hurricane’s power. Staying home to protect your property is not worth risking your family’s health and safety.

There are occasions when you may hear an order to stay at home. If driving conditions are too dangerous, staying home might be safer than leaving. Respect the authorities’ decisions.

 

If you need to evacuate:

 

  • Grab your emergency supply kit and only take what you need (cell phone, chargers, medicines, identification like a passport or license, and cash).
  • Unplug your appliances. If you have enough time, turn off the gas, electricity, and water.
  • Follow the roads emergency workers recommend, even if dense traffic is expected. Other routes might be blocked or already flooded. Never drive through flooded areas, as cars and other vehicles can be swept away or may stall in just 6 inches of moving water.
  • Contact your local emergency management office and ask if they offer accommodations for owners and pets.

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If you need to stay home:

 

  • Keep your emergency supply kit anywhere where you can easily access it anytime.
  • Follow weather updates online from NHC, and listen to the radio or TV for updates on the hurricane.
  • Stay inside. Even if it looks calm, don’t go outside. Wait until you hear an official message that the hurricane is over. Sometimes, the weather gets calm in the middle of a storm but then quickly worsens again.
  • Stay away from windows. You could get hurt by flying debris, such as pieces of broken glass or other objects picked up by winds around the neighborhood during the storm. Stay in a room without windows or go inside a closet.
  • Be ready to leave home. If emergency authorities order you to leave or your home is severely damaged, you may need to go to a shelter or a neighbor’s house.

Our expert forecaster team will actively follow the tropical region activity worldwide, including Atlantic Basin systems and tropical cyclones likely to affect the United States, the Caribbean, and Europe again in the following months.

Stay tuned for further follow-up posts, in-depth forecast discussions, and nowcasting during the coming weeks and throughout the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season 2023 peak months. We will prepare you.

Windy, NHC, Colorado State University, Tropical Tidbits, CyclonicWX, and WHO provided images used in this article.

See also: Extratropical Storm Kirk: Potential Severe Impact for Western Europe