Fresh model update on the developing Medicane: as indicated in previous model runs, there is still a lot of uncertainty regarding the potential track of the deep cyclone in the southern Mediterranean this weekend. Model guidance is now trending towards a more southerly track of the Medicane than what was anticipated in yesterday model runs. The Medicane may even hit Crete on late Saturday and WSW Turkey on Sunday, after nearing Peloponnese earlier. An intense cyclone is confirmed – severe wind and life-threatening flash floods threat are expected in some areas!

Morning infrared satellite animation of the developing cyclone in the southern Mediterranean sea today. In response to the Arctic outbreak that pushed into the southern Balkan peninsula, a cold core upper low is deepening in the southern-central Mediterranean and cyclogenesis is taking place. It will lead into the formation of a Tropical-like cyclone (TLC) / Medicane by the evening.

Here is the development sequence from tonight until the end of weekend, a comparison between ECMWF, ICON-EU and GFS model runs from model updates this morning:

Friday, Sept 28th 00 UTC

Friday, Sept 28th 12 UTC

Saturday, Sept 29th 00 UTC

Saturday, Sept 29th 12 UTC

Sunday, Sept 30th 00 UTC

Sunday, Sept 30th 12 UTC

Monday, Oct 1st 00 UTC

Peak wind gusts swath based on ICON-EU and GFS model runs today, 00 UTC: both agree with ECWMWF and trending towards the effect on Crete island more now and later the Medicane’s track would push towards WSW Turkey and could also affect Rhodes Island late on Sunday.

Associated with the deep low models are still hinting at a potentially extreme amount of rainfall likely. It depends quite critically on the cyclone’s track. Southern Greece will get hit hard, regardless of the track. These are the latest model guidance updates from GFS and ICON-EU models.

We are closely monitoring the development of the Medicane – we will keep you updated!