After a warm core system last week, global models GFS and ECMWF are trending towards the development of a new warm core cyclone/system in the southern Mediterranean later this week. The cyclone could form on Friday over the Ionian sea and gradually move towards the east on Saturday and Sunday.

The current pattern suggests the Arctic outbreak will spread across the Balkan peninsula and towards the southern Mediterranean after Wednesday. Thereafter, an upper low is increasingly likely to form over the southern Mediterranean. ECMWF is more aggressive and simulates a development of medicane / warm core system on Friday.

850 mb winds and temperature suggest the cyclone will be warm core, which is a fairly good sign we could be seeing another tropical-like cyclone / medicane in the Mediterranean region. Still awaiting high resolution models to reveal more details of this potential system soon.

Here is today’s 00 UTC run of ECMWF model sequence for Friday’s, Saturday’s and Sunday’s nights where the warm core system is developed in the Ionian sea, gradually moving across south Greece and towards the Aegean sea.

We are closely monitoring the evolution of the Arctic outbreak and the possible associated upper low in the south Mediterranean and will keep you updated.