UPDATE on Tropical storm Leslie: potential is increasing for landfall in SW Iberia this weekend
There is now some better agreement about the future track of Tropical Storm Leslie, heading towards SW Europe as per latest model guidance. Leslie will likely track between the Azores and the Canary Islands until Saturday when it will near Iberian peninsula. Still, Leslie could make landfall in Portugal, SW Spain or even Morocco. It may also dissipate before reaching Iberia.
Leslie is maintaining its Tropical storm strength today, remaining in the central Atlantic, and is expected to intensify back to a hurricane in the afternoon when it gets into better / warmer sea surface conditions. Notice the other potentially major hurricane [Michael] in the Gulf of Mexico as well.
— severe-weather.EU (@severeweatherEU) October 9, 2018
Latest model guidance tracks Leslie between the Azores and the Canary Islands. Leslie could make landfall in Madeira island eventually, with hurricane strength before weakening into a tropical storm or a post-tropical storm afterwards. Then Leslie will likely track towards the SW Iberian peninsula this weekend.
ECMWF model sequence for Friday, Saturday and Sunday: we can see the powerful windstorm Callum nearing western Europe and Leslie traveling just south of the Azores towards Spain and Portugal.
Stay tuned for further updates this evening!