VALID FOR 24-04-2014
A ridge dominating pattern across Europe with large pressure centered over Scandinavia. The deep trough from the E Atlantic enters SW Europe with widespread convective activity across N Iberia into S Spain. Another feature of interest is a gradually weakening upper low over the S Balkans.
A MDT risk has been issued for NE Iberia into SW France with threat for torrential rain, damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes. With a trough axis and a pronounced DCVA crossing N Iberia, the environment will be conductive for development of severe storms from the early afternoon onwards. Surroundings the MDT risk area a SLGT risk has been issued for lesser coverage of severe storms. Activity is likely to continue overnight on Thursday into the NW Mediterranean.
A SLGT risk has been issued for NW Iberia with threat for heavy rain / severe winds in the morning hours when cold front rapidly moves across the region.
A SLGT risk has been issued for Benelux into extreme NW Germany with threat for marginally large hail and locally heavy rain / flash floods threat. It seems that around 20 knots of deep layer shear coupled with moderate instability should support some deep updrafts and large hail threat.
A SLGT risk has been issued for parts of S Serbia, Macedonia and SW Bulgaria with threat for excessive convective rain / flash floods and marginally large hail.
A SLGT risk has been issued for NW Turkey where some threat for isolated supercells with large hail and damaging winds exists. Placed in the left exit of the jet across Turkey, QG forcing should support diurnal organized storms in moderately sheared environment.
The rest of lightning areas across Europe will see mostly diurnal driven thunderstorms, where especially areas around TSTM+ across Slovakia towards NW Romania should see more robust storms but should stay sub-severe given the lack of shear. However, marginally large hail / flash floods threat is still not completely ruled out.