As discussed earlier this week, current pattern supports a powerful blocking ridge with an intense ‘heatwave’ developed over eastern Europe, resulting in usually very warm afternoon temperatures across E Balkans and E Europe. This pattern will expand into the weekend and early next week, supporting additional warm days over the aforementioned region.

500 mbar chart indicates two very intense systems this weekend, a large and deep upper trough / low over WSW and central Europe while a powerful upper-level ridge will maintain over eastern Europe and western Russia. Strong southerlies will persist between both systems and support strong warm advection into the eastern half of Europe and also towards the Baltic region.

500 mbar pattern across Europe. Graphics:

As said, persisting southerly winds maintain strong warm advection from the Mediterranean region into eastern Europe and W Russia. It is expected to continue through the next few days as active dynamic pattern continues over SW-CNTRL Europe over the weekend. The warmth intensifies on Sunday and Monday when it gradually expands into Baltic region and parts of Scandinavia as well, before gradually vanishing towards the mid next week.

850 mbar temperature anomaly across Europe. Graphics:

Depending on the near-surface layers, many areas might be trapped under strong thermal inversions while the overall pattern supports very warm mid-November period. Some changes in the pattern are possible later next week – stay tuned for updates!

See also:

1) A powerful blocking ridge with an intense ‘heatwave’ developed over eastern Europe this week:

A powerful blocking ridge with an intense ‘heatwave’ develops over eastern Europe this week

2) An intense rainfall event with severe storms over the N Mediterranean region on Friday, Nov 15th:

Surface front brings severe storms with intense rainfall and flash floods into the N Adriatic region + lots of snow in the Alps, Nov 15th

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