Tropical Cyclone Maha continues moving northwest across the Arabian Sea and is now packing winds of 95 knots / 110 mph / 175 km/h, becoming a borderline Category 2/3 cyclone as of 18 UTC today. Central pressure is around 970 mbar. Maha intensified from 75 to 110 mph in the past 24 hours. Satellite imagery and Dvorak analysis suggest that Maha should become a Category 3 sometime until tomorrow and likely peak by late Tuesday before it makes a sharp east turn and heads towards NW India with a weakening trend.
Some more impresive satellite imagery of Maha today, revealing a quite large upper-level outflow in all direction and a tiny eye becoming visible, surrounded by strong convective bands, likely forming an eyewall. Images suggest Maha will continue strengthening in the next 24 hours.
Matmo pulse has entered bay ,now near north andaman. LPA will form tmrw. looks like sure to miss T.N and head NW.mean while VSCS #maha continues to move north west ,expected to change path towards NE due to strong westerly flow in coming week #ChennaiRains #ChennaiWeather pic.twitter.com/VKZLLyrjEG
— Chennai Rains (@Chennai_nem) November 3, 2019
The latest Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) indicates Cyclone Maha is starting to become better organized today with the gradual strengthening trend in the past hours.
Ocean Heat Content (OHC) map indicates how much cooler waters are present behind the previous cyclone Kyarr, Maha is heading that way until Tuesday. This will likely cause the start of a significant weakening trend afterward.
Cyclone Maha will continue moving northwest until Tuesday morning when it is expected to sharply turn east-northeast and head towards the NW India. It is expected to peak its intensity tomorrow and on Tuesday while the weakening trend starts then after.
GFS model forecast for peak wind gusts and rainfall totals along the Maha’s track in the coming days. The main intensity and highest amounts should remain over the Arabian sea, however, as cyclone significantly weakens before it makes landfall in NW India later this week.
We are monitoring Maha further and will keep you updated before Tuesday – stay tuned!
See also – another tropical system HALONG is ongoing in the Western Pacific:
A new rapidly developing Typhoon HALONG takes place east of Mariana islands, heads into the western Pacific
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