Yet another excessive snowfall event is developing across the western and northwestern Balkan peninsula through the middle of this week as a deep cyclone associated with a deep Arctic outbreak pushes into the north-central Mediterranean region. Up to 20-50 cm of fresh snow is possible in many areas, locally even more due to the dry expected snow. Severe winds will result in blizzard conditions in some areas.
The pattern supporting this event shows a very deep trough moving into the northern Mediterranean, resulting in a deep secondary cyclone. Strong warm / moist airmass advection will push towards the Balkan peninsula and result in heavy rainfall in Dalmatia (eastern Adriatic coast) and excessive snowfall further inland into the Balkan countries.
Snow depth based on various models – ARPEGE, ICON-EU and HIRLAM. All models are suggesting locally 30-50 cm of fresh snow will be possible, especially across the Dinaric mountain range in NW Croatia and WNW Bosnia where orographic effects will be maximized:
Total snowfall accumulation through the 72-hour period:
Total snowfall on Tuesday, Jan 22nd:
Total snowfall on Wednesday, Jan 23rd:
Another area of interest for quite an excessive snowfall event will also be across the northeastern Apeninnes where sea-effect snowfall occurs with cold northeasterly winds across the relatively warm Adriatic sea – more details on this soon.
Stay tuned for additional details tomorrow!
Weekly pattern across Europe overview – a very dynamic winter weather through the remainder of January (Jan 21 – 30th)
A strengthening trough will push a cold front across western Europe, bringing locally 5-15 cm of snow across the British Isles, Benelux and France, Jan 22/23rd