Super El Niño continues to strengthen rapidly across the tropical Pacific, with new ocean and atmospheric data showing another acceleration in its development. The latest long-range forecasts have raised the projected peak again, pushing the 2026 event deeper into historic territory later this year.
Behind this rapid growth is an unusually strong combination of westerly winds and subsurface ocean heat. Recent data shows record-level westerly wind anomalies across the equatorial Pacific, while a powerful Kelvin Wave continues to spread eastward beneath the surface, providing additional warm water that powers the Super El Niño.
In this specialized forecast article, I break down the latest ocean and atmospheric data behind the rapidly growing Super El Niño, including the record westerly wind anomalies and changing long-range forecasts. I also look at how the atmosphere is already responding, and what the latest Fall and Winter 2026/2027 predictions show for the United States, Canada, and Europe.
Super El Niño Dynamics: How Extreme Events Reshape Global Circulation
In the past few months, we have been tracking the growth of a Super El Niño event that is already a major global weather driver for 2026/2027. This Super El Niño is growing rapidly, and with the forecasts constantly adjusting its peak strength higher, we have to monitor its development on a regular basis.
Currently, we have just entered a very strong El Niño phase, so below you can see the usual changes it brings to the atmospheric circulation. The upward and downward atmospheric motion and circulation in the tropical regions is called a Walker Cell, and is especially sensitive to strong ENSO events. Image by ESA.
In simple terms, the El Niño causes a pressure drop in the central and eastern tropical Pacific and a high-pressure zone over the western Pacific. This circulation change affects the global atmosphere and significantly influences pressure patterns, winds, rainfall, and the overall seasonal weather system.
While a moderate event produces a mild wave pattern, a Super El Niño triggers a far more aggressive shift in the jet stream. The transition from a Moderate to an Extreme El Niño leads to a deeper Pacific trough and a stronger Canadian ridge, forming an atmospheric highway.
This favors milder conditions in the north while driving an active storm track across the southern United States. The image above is from a study (linked below) that compared pressure anomalies at 5km (3.1miles) during Winter for moderate and strong El Niño events.
Below is my combined analysis image of the last 4 Super El Niño events, showing ocean temperature anomalies. You can see a strong warm anomaly across the central and eastern tropical Pacific. This close proximity to North America means direct and strong impacts on the seasonal weather in the United States and Canada in the Northern Hemisphere.
El Niño events happen every few years, but Super events are rare, and usually occur once per decade or less.
But how does an El Niño even reach a “Super” status? To keep it simple, a westerly wind burst can pile up warm water in the western Pacific. This creates a warm oceanic layer at depth known as a Kelvin Wave, raising ocean heat content in the western Pacific, spreading east, and rising to the surface.
The latest analysis data now shows the exact same process unfolding rapidly, but with an energy signature that exceeds most (if not all) previous super events.
Kelvin Wave: Subsurface Heat Drives Rapid El Niño Growth
The latest NOAA CRW ocean analysis below shows the ENSO area covered in substantial warm anomalies. You can see the peak warmth in the eastern parts reaching more than 5 degrees above normal over a large area, peaking at over 6 degrees anomaly. This is an exceptionally strong anomaly for this stage of development, indicating unusually rapid El Niño growth.
The analysis below also shows the 30-day ocean temperature anomaly change. It reveals a broad warming trend as the El Niño is emerging, increasing by more than 1.5 degrees over a very large area. Such a trend marks accelerated growth, with at least 3 months of further development ahead.
The unusually rapid growth can be seen in the latest analysis graph below, for the main ENSO region. This is based on the relative ENSO index, which normalizes the data across past decades, making all El Niño events directly comparable. I produced this plot using BOM weekly data.
As you can see, there has been accelerated El Niño growth and strengthening since Spring. The 2026 event has already surpassed the last Super El Niño event (2015-2016) in speed and strength. It is already not far from the peak strength of the last Super event, after having one of the fastest development cycles in decades.
Looking at the medium-range forecast below, the day-10 forecast shows continued expansion of the +5 degree (+9°F) anomaly area, indicating no real break in the current growth. The 2026 event is developing at an exceptional rate, with the latest data putting its current trajectory among the strongest in the historical record.
Exceptional surface anomalies are only half the story. The true power that is driving this rapid warming and Super El Niño development sits deep below the ocean surface.
Below you can see the subsurface temperature anomaly across the tropical Pacific in the top 250m (800ft) of the ocean. This reveals the core (engine) of the 2026/2027 Super El Niño event: a powerful downwelling Kelvin Wave, with peak anomalies over 9 degrees (16°F) above normal. It is pushing eastward and rising toward the surface.
In simple terms, the ocean surface anomalies are just the surface footprint of this massive subsurface warm core. As this warm water steadily surfaces, it provides a continuous supply of thermal energy to keep the El Niño strong and healthy well into the Winter season.
I produced a video below that shows the development of subsurface temperature anomalies in the past week under the ENSO region. It shows clear movement and growth of this large Kelvin Wave and its eventual rise as a Super El Niño in the eastern parts.
These subsurface Kelvin waves are driven by the westerly wind bursts across the tropical Pacific, pushing the warmer subsurface ocean waters to the east, where they rise to the surface. And there are more westerly winds coming to the Pacific, boosting the Super El Niño even higher towards Winter.
Westerly Wind Bursts: Record Pacific Anomalies Drive El Niño Growth
Below is the zonal wind ranking for June and July 2026, which I calculated using ERA5 data. It nicely shows how the westerly wind anomaly in the past two months compares to the past 86 years. You can see that a broad region of the western and central equatorial Pacific recorded its strongest low-level westerly wind anomalies on record, with surrounding areas ranking in the top five.
This is scientifically significant because achieving an absolute record across an 86-year dataset for a two-month average requires sustained, broad trade wind collapse. It shows that the atmosphere really is supportive for one of the strongest El Niño events to develop.
The result is visible in the ocean heat content below, which looks at the ocean down to 300m (1000ft) depth. It perfectly shows an expanding warm subsurface anomaly across the tropical Pacific and ENSO regions from Spring to now, driven by the westerly wind bursts that push the warm Kelvin Wave eastward.
But the story doesn’t end here, since continued westerly winds will help sustain and further strengthen the Super El Niño anomalies at and below the ocean surface.
Below is the latest analysis and forecast of the winds across the tropics. You can already see the strong westerly wind burst anomalies (warm hues) in the analysis part, driving the El Niño warming. But the forecast now also shows even stronger westerly anomalies across the Pacific in August, which will help further grow and strengthen the 2026/2027 Super El Niño event.
The extended-range ECMWF forecast maintains continuous westerly wind anomalies across the western and central Pacific through late September. In ensemble forecasting, a signal this persistent beyond 10 days indicates an exceptionally robust ocean-atmosphere coupling that will continuously suppress trade winds and force tropical Pacific warming.
The individual westerly wind burst events occur on a daily or weekly scale, making it hard for seasonal forecasts to simulate them properly. And since they are the key to El Niño growth and strength, this means the true extent of the 2026 Super El Niño event was hidden until recent weeks.
Latest El Niño Forecast: New Runs Push Further Into Record Territory
Because seasonal models cannot properly simulate individual future westerly wind events, they often underpredict the initial rapid growth of an El Niño. This is until the winds actually occur, launch an oceanic Kelvin Wave, and allow the models to physically see the resulting El Niño warming.
This has created a very strong visual forecast trend, with each new forecast showing a stronger peak El Niño anomaly.
Below is a comparison I produced using the last seven ECMWF forecasts, released since early February. You can clearly see that each new run shows a stronger event, with the last three runs pushing it into record-strong territory, above all the strongest Super El Niño events.
The same trend is also visible on the NMME multi-model forecast, also trending with a stronger Super El Niño with each consecutive run since February at least. The anomaly values for the main ENSO region now peak close to +4 degrees, making this a record-strong event if verified.
The term Super El Niño is commonly used for events in which sea surface temperature anomalies in the main ENSO region reach or exceed +2 degrees above the long-term average. All forecasts now indicate that this event will reach far above that, exceeding even the extreme +3 threshold (unofficial) in a lot of scenarios.
Below is the latest ECMWF forecast average for the November-December period, revealing a significant Super El Niño event. Peak anomalies reach +7 in the eastern parts, outside of the main region, but overall, we are observing a historic event unfolding.
El Niño events always peak later in the year, with the latest forecasts trending toward a max anomaly around November-December as seen above. The multi-model forecast below for November shows a very strong event, with the Super El Niño and related anomalies covering over 10% of the global ocean surface.
But the strong anomalies do not end in the ocean. The atmosphere is already responding to this El Niño event, with stronger impacts coming in Fall and Winter 2026/2027, as indicated by the latest long-range data.
Atmospheric Forcing: Super El Niño Establishes a Global Standing Wave
To detect the visible atmospheric impact of the Super El Niño, we need to find its circulation in the Walker cell, the tropical rising and sinking of air.
Below is the latest 30-day analysis of the Velocity Potential parameter from GDAS data, which shows broad areas of rising and sinking air in the atmosphere. You can see a large rising air anomaly (teal) directly over the central and eastern Pacific, forced by the lower pressure and rainfall of the El Niño, and strong sinking (brown) towards the west.
These areas of rising and sinking air (Walker cell) are usually dynamic, moving around the globe with different atmospheric waves and drivers. But when a Super El Niño appears, the strong ocean heat and energy overpowers these moving weather drivers.
It can force the atmosphere to lock down, creating what scientists call an atmospheric standing wave. You can see this in the ECMWF extended forecast below, which shows the main areas of the Walker cell almost fixed/stationary over time, for the duration of the forecast into late September.
You can clearly see the two main areas of rising and sinking motion: Low pressure over the tropical Pacific and the stable sinking air over the Indian Ocean, which reveal the standing wave formation.
But just looking at two different colors doesn’t reveal the full picture. For that reason, NOAA has created the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI). This index combines oceanic and atmospheric data into a single measure of the ENSO state. This reveals how strongly the El Niño signal is established across both the ocean and atmosphere.
You can see the MEI table below, which shows the bi-monthly value for 2026, compared to the last 3 Super El Niño events. The latest value shows that 2026 reached a record-high June-July (JJ) value of +2.4, the highest for this period in the NOAA record since it began in 1979.
Values above +2 are found only during the strongest El Niño events, but not this early. This confirms just how strongly the oceanic and atmospheric signals have already developed in 2026. The index underwent an exceptional +3.4 point jump in just four bi-monthly periods, climbing from a cool -1 in February-March to +2.4 in June-July.
This means the weather in your backyard is directly or indirectly connected to what’s happening in the tropical Pacific, no matter how far away you live.
With a historic 2026/2027 Super El Niño event unfolding, we are entering almost uncharted territory in terms of atmospheric impacts. The biggest impact in the Northern Hemisphere arrives during Fall and more in Winter, when the pressure systems are at their strongest.
Fall 2026 Forecast: El Niño Winter Pattern Appears Early
The latest Fall pressure pattern forecast shows a much more evolved pattern than normally expected, looking more similar to an El Niño Winter signature.
You can see below that it shows a stronger-than-usual atmospheric impact in Fall already, due to the strength of this El Niño event. The key is a high-pressure anomaly over Canada, with the El Niño Pacific low, and a wave of low-pressure systems over the southern United States.
Further east, a low-pressure area sits over the North Atlantic, reaching into the UK and Ireland. This creates a pronounced westerly flow over the continent and brings a warmer southerly airmass rising towards the north.
This is really interesting to see, because it breaks the usual Fall El Niño pattern, and instead looks more like an El Niño Winter pattern, seen below. It has the same low-pressure area in the North Pacific, a high-pressure zone over Canada, and a low-pressure storm track across the southern United States and into the Atlantic, just as the Fall forecast above.
This really shows just how strong the Super El Niño global forcing is, already evident in the current Summer season with the formation of an atmospheric standing wave.
The temperature forecast below shows warmer temperatures over the northern United States and Canada under the main high-pressure area. Temperatures are mostly around normal in the south-central and eastern United States, due to a more persistent low-pressure storm track starting in the southern half of the United States.
This is the October-December period in the forecast, which covers the core Fall season and the early transition into Winter.
The precipitation forecast for the same period also shows a very evolved El Niño signature, with increased rainfall over most of the United States, especially in the southeast and east, due to the amplified Pacific jet stream. Drier conditions are forecast over the northwestern U.S. and southern Canada.
Over Europe, we can see the impact of the low-pressure area in the North Atlantic, bringing warmer-than-normal surface temperatures over much of the continent. Warmer anomalies are focused on the central, western, and southeastern regions, driven by the westerly and southwesterly flow.
The westerly and southwesterly flow from the Atlantic low-pressure area also brings in a lot of moisture, increasing precipitation potential over much of the continent. This is visible in the precipitation forecast (right), indicating above-normal precipitation over most of Europe.
All these forecasts show that we can expect a strong pattern evolution from the historic El Niño event. But the full strength forcing usually occurs in Winter, with the latest round of forecasts indicating a highly amplified Winter pattern.
Winter 2026/2027 Forecast: An Amplified Pattern Builds Across North America
The winter season is the most high-impact part of the year, and usually of most interest to most people. It also packs the most energy in the weather systems, making it the most impactful part of the year in a Super El Niño event.
Below is the very latest ECMWF pressure anomaly forecast, released in the past few days. This is the winter forecast for the December-February period, and it shows a strong El Niño forcing at play. The key parts are the deep low-pressure zone in the North Pacific and the blocking high-pressure area over Canada.
The forecast also shows a high-amplitude pressure pattern across the southern and eastern United States. This is aligned with a strong Pacific jet stream, the key component of a Super El Niño Winter. It’s worth adding that this period is 4-6 months in the future, but already shows such strong anomalies.
Such a pressure pattern translates into a sharp temperature difference between the United States and Canada. You can see above-normal temperatures under the high-pressure zone in Canada and the northern United States, also including the U.S. West Coast, and the Northeast.
The deep southern low-pressure systems allow cooler-than-normal temperatures across Texas, the Gulf Coast, and the Southeast. This is primarily driven by an active southern jet stream zone, which brings persistent cloud cover and rain.
As we move into mid-late winter, there are some indications of the Super El Niño pattern going into overdrive. The February forecast below shows a much deeper pressure wave over the United States for mid-late Winter, with the whole atmospheric wave shifted east.
This northern blocking is forcing a deep, highly active low-pressure zone from the Pacific straight through the central, southern, and eastern United States. In such a configuration, this signals a potentially colder-than-normal mid and late winter season over parts of the United States.
The corresponding temperature forecast for February shows a surprising cold anomaly over a large part of the United States, reaching up into southwestern Canada. This would make for a very interesting Winter season, as it could lead to potentially good snowstorm scenarios across the central, eastern, and northeastern United States.
I do have to add that this is just a recent developing trend, so it’s not a fixed forecast by any means. But it is a calculation based on real oceanic and atmospheric conditions. I will further monitor this development, especially since it is gaining support from other long-range predictions.
A Super El Niño pattern also strongly impacts the snowfall potential. When an active southern jet stream overlaps periodic cold air drops from Canada, it can shift the primary winter storm corridor farther south than usual.
Below is the latest ECMWF snowfall forecast, and it shows exactly this development. We can see reduced snow totals across the Northern United States and southern Canada, but above-normal snowfall potential across the Central and Eastern United States, and southeastern Canada.
Good snowfall potential is indicated across the Southwestern and Southeastern U.S., the Central Plains, parts of the Midwest, East, and into the Mid-Atlantic.
Areas across Canada, the Pacific Northwest, and the northern Great Lakes show below-average snowfall anomalies, driven by warmer temperatures and a northern ridge that pushes the polar air away.
The most important thing for snowfall is where the moisture flow intersects cold air. This forecast setup elevates the potential for major winter storms, ice events, and heavy snowfall from the Southern Plains and Mid-Atlantic into the interior Northeast. But it does rely on having a cold enough air mass to work with.
Europe Winter 2026/2027: Westerly Pattern Favors a Milder Season
Below is the very latest winter pattern forecast by ECMWF. It shows the highly amplified pressure over North America, also impacting the weather downstream. The main feature for Europe comes from the low-pressure area extension into its northwestern and northern parts.
This creates a strong pressure difference from north to south, boosting the westerly flow into Europe from the Atlantic, while also allowing some northerly flow over the north and northwest.
This is reflected in the latest December-February temperature forecast below, where you can see mostly above-normal temperatures during the winter season. This is the result of a dominant mild westerly flow. It still allows some northerly flow into the UK and Ireland, as low-pressure areas move from the Atlantic into northern Europe.
The main snowfall potential in such a pattern comes with individual low-pressure systems moving further inland and to the south, bringing along a more northerly flow. The overall seasonal pattern is not that favorable for broad snowfall over Europe. The exceptions are the north and northeast, and the central higher elevations.
I will write full in-depth forecast articles for Fall and Winter 2026/2027 over the United States, Canada, and Europe, once all the necessary data is available.
Scientific Research Used in this Article
- Super El Niño Development: Formation Mechanism for 2015/16 Super El Niño – Chen et al. (2017).
- Extreme El Niño Teleconnections: A Distinct and Reproducible Teleconnection Pattern over North America during Extreme El Niño Events – Beniche et al. (2024).
- Westerly Wind Bursts: The Essential Role of Westerly Wind Bursts in ENSO Dynamics and Extreme Events Quantified in Model “Wind Stress Shaving” Experiments – Yu and Fedorov (2022).
Forecast and analysis images in this article are from ECMWF, CyclonicWX, weathermodels.com, and WeatherBell (using a commercial license).
El Niño driving the August weather shift: Super El Niño Drives an August Weather Shift as Fall and Winter Signals Strengthen
New ocean anomalies emerging: A New Ocean Anomaly Joins Super El Niño, Reshaping the Winter 2026/2027 Forecast
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