#Calvinia is now a Severe Tropical Storm as it intensified its wind field into 55 knots / 65 mph / 100 km/h of sustained winds. Central pressure is around 985 mbar, and continues dropping while winds are increasing. However, Calvinia is already in its accelerating southward progress and moving away from #Mauritius. The severe winds and flooding threat across the island is diminishing and should vanish today. But Calvinia will continue intensifying for another two days and could potentially reach a Tropical Cyclone strength with sustained winds around 65 knots by Thursday, Jan 2nd.

Model analysis of the current position of Calvinia, as of Dec 31st 12 UTC, is it already quite south of Mauritius but steadily strengthening. Peak gusts are exceeding 140 km/h across its SE quadrant.

Satellite imagery continues to reveal a quite impressive overall picture of the system, having a classic cyclonic structure with still good upper-level outflow ventilation. Attached microwave scans indicate it is also building a healthy eyewall around its small eye.



Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) analysis estimates the intensity is now set at 55 knots / 65 mph – Severe Tropical Storm based on SW Indian Ocean classification. Cloud tops are close to -75 °C. The system has also developed a 50-knot wind radii now, extending 35-40 miles across all four quadrants. Calvinia is slowly but steadily strengthening.

Some reports across #Mauritius:


https://twitter.com/rachaelpurr/status/1211539095358337025


https://twitter.com/kids365org/status/1211563671987507201

Zoomed-in view of Calvinia as of tonight, New Years’ Eve, becoming even more intense with gusts around 160 km/h. However, it will continue moving south with an accelerating rate, so no threat to any land areas is expected.

Calvinia will be gradually strengthening for the next 36 hours since it is still in rather good ocean heat environment while moving south-southeast, then begin weakening after Jan 2nd.

Stay tuned for additional updates!

Previous discussions:

Tropical Storm #CALVINIA is nearing #Mauritius, pounding the island with severe damaging winds and torrential rainfall


Tropical activity of the SW Indian Ocean returns – Tropical Storm #Calvinia is born near Mauritius


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