SYNOPSIS
A deep upper low remains over W Scandinavia and Norwegian sea while upper ridges dominate WSW and ESE Europe. A weakening upper low remains over the Mediterranean and W Balkan peninsula.
DISCUSSION
ENH risk has been issued for SE Belarus and NE Ukraine into W Russia with threat for severe storms, capable of producing severe winds, torrential rainfall and large hail. A rather widespread convective activity is again expected along the stalled / slowly SE-wards moving frontal boundary under strong instability a moderately sheared environment. Organized storms including supercells are likely.
SLGT / MRGL risks have been issued for areas surrounding the ENH risk including south-central Balkan peninsula, Ukraine, SW Russia into Georgia with more isolated threat for severe storms, capable of producing strong to severe winds, marginally large hail and torrential rainfall.
MRGL risk has been issued for central Turkey with isolated threat for severe storms, capable of producing severe winds, large hail and torrential rainfall.
TSTM risk areas have been placed where convective storms are likely to occur but should remain sub-severe.