Here comes the first heat wave of the year for the Iberian peninsula! Much of Europe has been under the influence of cold airmass advection from the north and temperatures have not been particularly warm and yet another cool wave is expected this weekend and early next week. The Iberian peninsula on the other hand, will be enjoying much more pleasant weather: temperatures in parts of Spain and Portugal will likely push well above 30 °C early next week!

850 mbar temperature anomaly across Europe on Monday (May 13th). Note the exceptionally warm airmass SW of the Iberian peninsula, stretching across much of Portugal and NW Spain. GFS model guidance. Map: Wxcharts.

An upper ridge establishes over the Atlantic and western Europe during the weekend and strengthens significantly by early in the next week, providing very stable weather conditions across much of the region. Temperature anomaly at 850 mbar level will reach +8 °C (e.g. the temperature at that altitude, approximately 1500 m will be 8 °C warmer than average for this period) by Friday, +16 °C by Sunday and up to +18 °C by Monday. It will likely decrease somewhat after that, but could remain very high for quite some time.

Ground level (2 m) temperatures will be significantly above average for this period, with western and southern parts of the Iberian peninsula up to 10-14 °C above average during the weekend and early next week! Daytime highs will reach into upper 20s and 30s across much of the region, up to 34-35 °C in parts of southern and southwestern Spain and large parts of Portugal.

It is becoming very likely that Spain and Portugal will experience the first significant heat wave this year. Stay tuned, we will be providing additional updates as the weather pattern evolves.

Ground level (2 m) temperature anomaly across Europe late on Sunday (May 12th) and Monday (May 13th). Very warm airmass across much of the Iberian peninsula! Locally over 12 °C warmer than average! Also note the exceptionally warm airmass in NW Morocco, nearly 20 °C warmer than average. GFS model guidance. Map: Wxcharts.

Daytime highs across the Iberian peninsula from Friday to Wednesday (May 10-15th). GFS model guidance. Map: Wxcharts.

Also see:

Weekly pattern outlook for Europe – warm spring weather is postponed as dynamic weather continues, May 7-13th