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Polar Vortex sends Arctic Blast south, grips Canada and U.S. into deep freeze

We are live-tracking the weather pattern evolution across North America, bracing for the most significant Arctic Blast of the winter season 2024/25. The southern lobe of the Polar Vortex will grip Canada and the United States with frigid cold air mass through the second half of January.

The southern lobe of the Polar Vortex will establish extreme cold conditions across the North American continent. Temperatures are forecast to plunge into a deep freeze, pushing 30-40 degrees below normal for tens of millions across both nations.

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The weather pattern forecast to develop over the weekend hints at an extensive, strong upper-level ridge established over the Northern Pacific and Alaska. This pattern produces an extensive frigid cold air mass reservoir over Arctic Canada.

The large Arctic cold pool will first intensify in most of Canada and then rapidly expand south across the United States from Sunday through Tuesday. Frigid cold days and locally historic low temperatures are forecast for multiple days.

The progress of the Arctic cold pool will be rapid, with a sharp decline in temperatures, engulfing both nations in a deep freeze. The Meteogram chart below for Rapid City, South Dakota, hints at this astonishing temperature change:

From 54 °F (12 °C) on Friday morning to -11 °F (-24 °C) by Sunday morning. This is a temperature drop of 65 °F (36 °C) in less than 48 hours.

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As we head into the weekend, western and central Canada will gradually progress into a more extreme cold pattern. It will spread throughout the United States from Sunday into the following week.

Additionally, the Arctic Blast will likely trigger another significant winter storm with deep snow across the southern U.S. mid-next week.

*Note: This post is regularly updated as the pattern evolves. The most recent update is always at the top of the article. Feel free to bookmark the link and stay tuned.

Before we dig into the details of the upcoming event, we want to talk about the main trigger behind these events. The historic Arctic Blasts often follow a substantial disruption of the Polar Vortex aloft.
This month, its southern lobe has shifted over North America, which is why the cold air mass outbreak will be so intense and push far south toward the Gulf Coast.

What is the Polar Vortex?

 

The Earth’s atmosphere has six layers around the planet. Most of the dynamics for our daily weather occur in the lowest two layers, known as the troposphere and the stratosphere.

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Another essential feature in the stratosphere, which makes our weather even more variable, often triggers significant large-scale and long-lasting winter weather events. This is the Polar Vortex—an enormous, tri-dimensional ring of powerful winds moving through the sky above us. The Polar Vortex is spinning around the North Pole, grazing through the air at about 20-50 km above the Earth’s surface with violent wind speed.

The troposphere and stratosphere are crucial for our climate. The Polar Vortex covers most of the bottom half of the atmosphere. Since the vortex extends from the middle of Earth’s troposphere into the stratosphere layer, it significantly affects winter weather across high and mid-latitudes yearly.

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The Polar Vortex is most substantial during winter in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Although it spins well above our heads, it remains closely connected with the lowest parts of our atmosphere. Thus, it influences our daily weather in many ways, as it generally functions as one sizeable hemispheric circulation.

The Polar Vortex has triggered the most intense weather systems, from frigid cold outbreaks and winter storms in Canada and the United States to Asia and Europe. Although it affects the whole Northern Hemisphere, its main impact occurs where the southern lobe of the vortex is located.

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The active and strong Polar Vortex during the first half of the Winter season 2024/25 has been the main trigger behind the historic cold outbreaks over Siberia; temperatures plunged below -65 °F for several days at the beginning of January.

Meanwhile, the most intense part of the vortex, the southern lobe of the Polar Vortex, has shifted to the North American side of the northern hemisphere. This is where all the fun begins, and both Canada and the United States will be blasted by frigid cold weather over the next two weeks.

A significant blocking High over Alaska triggers a powerful Arctic Blast into Canada and the U.S.

 

The general weather pattern foreseen over North America hints at a large-scale blocking ridge developing over the North Pacific and Alaska, growing as we head into the weekend. To its east, a deep wave under the lobe of the Polar Vortex aloft triggers a major Arctic Blast over Canada.

The frigid cold pool will gradually spread into the northern U.S. by Saturday and rapidly continue towards the Gulf Coast by Sunday.

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In response to significantly colder temperatures descending from the upper levels towards the surface, the cold pool will establish an extensive high-pressure system at the surface across western Canada and into the United States. This is a typical evolution as cold weather is denser than the warm air mass, so the pressure underneath the Arctic cold significantly rises.

The upcoming Arctic Blast will bring the most intense cold weather this Winter Season 2024/2025; frigid low temperatures are forecast.

The brutal cold first spreads across Alberta and Saskatchewan, Canada, on Friday, then advances south across Montana, Wyoming, and the Dakotas on Saturday. Reaching the Central Plains by Sunday morning as the Arctic front rapidly raced towards the south across the U.S.

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The above chart represents the 850 mbar temperature anomaly for Monday, January 20th, 2025. Extremely anomalous temperatures grip most of the United States, with the most extreme cold across the northern and central Great Plains, Midwest, and southern Canada. Temperatures will be 40 to 50 degrees F below normal in some areas.

Daily temperatures will be 30 to 50 °F below normal for mid-January, posing a high risk of hypothermia for those exposed outside for too long. Conditions will be frigid.

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The cold pool will advance across the south-central U.S. on Sunday and reach the Gulf Coast by the evening. Monday and Tuesday will bring deep freeze across the deep South, including Texas and Mexico.
Below is the video animation overview of the pattern’s evolution, which will spread across Canada and the U.S. over the next two weeks.

There is now an increasing risk that the arrival of the Arctic Blast at the Gulf Coast will trigger another Winter Storm early next week, tracking across the southern U.S. towards the East.

The following chart is the ECMWF weather model forecast for new snow from Wednesday through Friday next week. From 10 to 20 inches of snow could blanket millions from East Texas to the Mid-Atlantic and East Coast. Ice storms could also develop.

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More details will follow in the coming days, as the next winter storm is still about a week away, and uncertainties exist regarding its intensity and potential precise track for the South.

Several frigid cold Arctic outbreaks are likely to follow until the end of January 2025

 

Thanks to a dynamic Polar Vortex and its persistent southern lobe above the North American continent, the extensive cold pools are forecast to remain in place for extended periods. Weather model consensus agrees in multiple intense Arctic outbreaks across the continent throughout January.

According to the ECMWF weather model, the upper High from the Pacific Ocean and Alaska will strengthen further, resulting in an extreme dipole weather pattern with a deep trough over Canada and the U.S.

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This would again respond to extreme cold weather, which would continue engulfing most countries until the end of the month.

Stay tuned!

Wxcharts, Windy, and Pivotalweather provided images used in this article.

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The initial forecast of the weather pattern change into a deep freeze across North America