Major rainfall in extreme northeastern Spain and southern France today – local flooding likely
Up to 100 mm of rainfall, locally more, is indicated by high-res models for extreme NE Spain and S France by early tomorrow morning. Expect local flooding.
Follow ongoing storms on radar:
A cutoff cold core upper low is forming over the Iberian peninsula, with thunderstorms ongoing along the cold front in the eastern part of the peninsula and extreme western Mediterranean. Favourable south-north storm motion in extreme northeastern Spain and southern France will result in accumulation of rainfall from successive storms, locally up to 100 mm or more. Expect local flooding.
Moderate instability with up to about 1000 J/kg MLCAPE overlaps favourable with strong 30-50 kt deep-layer shear. Moderately favourable vertical veering wind profiles provide up to 150 m2/s2 SREH3, favourable for organized storms, including supercells. Expect the main threat to be strong rainfall and large hail. Steep low level lapse rates and favourable surface backing southeasterlies also enhance the threat for tornadoes, particularly across the Balearic Isles.
Maps: Wxcharts.eu & Meteociel.fr