VALID FOR 18-05-2014
A weak upper low centered over S Poland retrogrades NW-wards towards Denmark while a deep trough continues moving south across W Europe. Strong ridge developing over NW russia.
A MDT risk has been issued for E Ukraine across most of Belarus into Baltic States with threat for very large hail, severe winds, torrential rain and tornadoes. Strong instability (1500-2500 J/kg) coupled with moderate strong shear (40-60 kt) and SREH (200-400 J/kg) will be supportive for widespread severe storms across the risk area in the afternoon hours as well as into the night with possible large clusters of storms spreading NNW-wards.
A SLGT risk has been issued for surrounding areas of MDT risk with threat for large hail, strong to severe winds, heavy rain and some tornado threat.
A SLGT risk has been issued for NNE Turkey with threat for isolated severe storms with large hail, heavy rain and severe winds threat.
A SLGT risk has been issued for NE Morrocco and NW Algeria with threat for large hail, torrential rain and severe winds with storms forming around the Atlas mountains.
Additionally, two areas of interest on Sunday are central UK where conditions could become supportive for some isolated severe storms along the front and central Europe around the Alps where enhanced threat for strong pulsating storms with threat for marginal hail / heavy rain exists. Both areas are monitored for possible upgrade into SLGT on DAY 1 outlook tomorrow.