VALID FOR 17-05-2014
A large upper low is gradually weakening while moving from central Balkans towards Poland on Saturday. The ridging pattern over the rest of Europe is collapsing as a deep trough with the frontal system begins to deepen into western Europe.
A MDT+ risk has been issued for N-CNTRL Ukraine into S Belarus with threat for severe damaging winds, torrential rain, very large hail and tornadoes – some of them could be strong.
A SLGT+ risk has been issued for area surrounding the MDT+ risk with threat for severe winds, heavy rain, large hail and some tornado threat. SLGT+ risk has also been extended east into Russia along the stationary front.
A MDT risk has been issued for Norwegian sea into coastal areas of N-CNTRL Norway with threat for severe non-convective wind gusts. Locally, gusts may exceed 120 km/h along the exposed coastal areas.
A SLGT risk has been issued for surrounding areas of MDT risk over Norwegian sea and costal areas of N-CNTRL Norway with threat for severe winds.
A SLGT risk has been issued for northern Turkey with threat for some isolated severe storms within the moderately unstable and sheared environment. Large hail and severe winds are the primary threats.
A marginal SLGT risk has been issued for southern Balkans where threat for isolated severe storms bringing locally heavy rain and marginal hail due to their pulsating nature in moderately unstable and weakly sheared environment. Funnel clouds / landspouts seem possible as well given the strong LL lapse rates / buoyancy and weak near-surface winds.
A SLGT risk has been issued for NE Morocco and NW Algeria with threat for large hail, severe winds and heavy rain as some severe storms are likely to occur during the afternoon hours, associated with the upper low moving across the Atlas mountains.