VALID FOR 23-05-2014
A large upper low over W Europe slowly is spreading east towards CNTRL Europe with a SFC N-S oriented frontal boundary being pushed across E Germany, Alps and N Italy. A weak upper low rotates over Turkey / Black Sea.
A MDT risk has been issued for W Czech Republic, E Germany into W Poland with threat for large to very large hail, severe winds, heavy excessive rain and tornadoes. Widespread multicells and supercells are likely to initiate along the eastwards progressing cold front in early to mid afternoon across the risk area, merging into one or two cluster towards the evening while spreading NNE-wards.
A SLGT risk has been issued for surrounding the MDT area with threat for more isolated severe storms, primary threat heavy rain and large hail.
A SLGT+ risk has been issued for E-CNTRL France and N Italy with threat for large hail, severe winds, heavy rain and some tornado threat. Excessive rain likely along the southern Alpine flank, combination of orographic rain and convection.
A SLGT risk has been issued for NE Algeria into N Tunisia with threat for large hail, heavy rain and severe winds.
A SLGT risk has been issued for parts of NW Russia and parts of S Norway and CNTRL Sweden with threat for severe winds, heavy rain and large hail.
A SLGT risk has been issued for western Romania with threat for heavy rain, severe winds and large hail.
Strong to severe storms also possible over Balkans and Turkey (TSTM+ areas), while lack of shear limits the more robust storms.