Outlook DAY 1 (valid: 19/05/2019)
Strong upper ridge persists across N Europe and Arctic region while a large trough / low remains over south-central Europe. A shallow upper low is centered over the Black Sea.
ENH risk has been issued for E Serbia, SE Hungary, W Romania and NW Bulgaria with threat for severe storms, capable of producing severe winds, torrential / excessive rainfall, large to very large hail and tornadoes. A good overlap of rather strong instability and shear should allow well-organized storms, while given the enhanced ESE near-surface inflow winds, rotating storms are also likely.
SLGT risk has been issued for NE Poland, SW Belarus into W Ukraine, N MOldova and NE Romania with threat for severe storms, capable of producing severe winds, torrential rainfall, large hail and some tornado threat. Again, rather widespread storms are expected along the diffuse stalled front.
SLGT risk has been issued for Georgia into NE Turkey with threat for isolated severe storms, capable of producing severe winds, torrential rainfall and large to very large hail.
MRGL risk has been issued for areas surrounding the ENH / SLGT risks including NE Germany, Poland, N Czech Republic, Slovakia, E Hungary, central Ukraine and south Balkan peninsula into S Italy with isolated threat for severe storms, mostly capable of producing severe winds, torrential rainfall with flash floods and marginally large hail.
TSTM risk areas have been placed where convective storms are likely to occur but should remain sub-severe.