Mesoscale Discussion #001 (valid 17/05/2014 13-16 UTC)

Latest sfc data shows temperatures in 28-32 °C range and dewpoints in 14 – 18° range across NE Ukraine and SE Belarus. Strong backing SE-E winds at 10-15 kt are present over the region. A 35-50 kt 500 mbar northerly jet is present over the region, producing 30 – 50 m/s DLS that partially overlaps with moderate to high MLCAPE in the 1500-2000 J/kg range. Strongly veering vertical wind profiles provide up to 200 m2/s2 SREH3 over Belarus and up to nearly 400 m2/s2 SREH3 over E Ukraine. The conditions are prime for severe supercell thunderstorms. Main threats include large to very large hail, severe wind gusts, heavy rainfall and tornadoes. Forecast LCLs are in the 800 – 1250 m range, moderately favourable for tornadogenesis. SREH1 is significantly enhanced along the warm front advecting northwards. Main tornado threat extends across NE Ukraine over S Belarus well into SE Poland (where instability is significantly lower).