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Severe Weather Outlooks FAQ

SYNOPSIS

A deep upper low is centered over S Italy and moving east. One short-wave moves across E Balkan peninsula and across N Iberia. A strong ridge persists across N Europe.

DISCUSSION


ENH / SLGT risks have been issued for central Ukraine into S Belarus with treat for severe storms, capable of producing severe winds, torrential rainfall, large to very large hail and tornadoes. Widespread convective storms are expected across the warm sector ahead of the front, fueled by strong instability and moderate shear. Enhanced LL helicity should also support threat for tornadoes.

SLGT risk has been issued for parts of W Russia with threat for severe winds, large hail and torrential rainfall. Again, diurnal driven organized storms are likely within weak shear but strong instability.


ENH / SLGT risks have been issued for S Italy, Ionian sea into SW Greece with threat for severe storms, capable of producing severe winds, torrential rainfall, large hail and some tornado threat. Storms are expected along the short-wave moving across the S Mediterranean within moderate CAPE and shear favorable for severe threats.

SLGT risk has been issued for S Romania, Bulgaria, NE Greece and NW Turkey with threat for severe storms, capable of producing severe winds, torrential rainfall and large hail.

TSTM risk areas have been placed where convective storms are likely to occur but should remain sub-severe.


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