VALID FOR 12-04-2017
An upper ridge over WSW Europe weakening while the new trough is pushed from the N towards E Europe. A cold front continues south across S Balkan peninsula and S Italy. An upper low develops over E Mediterranean with a SFC low pushed towards Middle East.
A SLGT risk has been issued for extreme E Mediterranean into Middle East with threat for severe storms, capable of producing large hail, severe winds, torrential rainfall and tornadoes. Widespread storm activity will be associated with the short-wave trough & cyclone moving across the risk areas from the SW.
A MRGL risk has been issued for parts of S-CNTRL Italy with some isolated storms possible given the overlap of moderate CAPE and marginal shear along the weakening front moving south.
A MRGL risk has been issued for N Tunisia with threat for isolated severe storms with large hail and severe winds as the primary threats.