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Outlook day 1 & 2 (valid: 13-14/10/2018)

VALID FOR 13 & 14-10-2018


Hurricane Leslie is rapidly moving ENE over the Atlantic ocean, undergoing extratropical transition, approaching the Iberian peninsula for landfall tonight. The system is moving just ahead of a cold front, which was also associated with cyclone Callum yesterday. Leslie is currently looking very healthy, with a strong central dense overcast, vigorous convection and hurricane force max sustained winds of approximately 125 km/h.


The system will interact with the cold front behind it and is expected to strengthen significantly just at the time of landfall. Leslie is expected to make landfall around 21-00h UTC about 150-200 km north of Lisbon, Portugal. Peak gusts of 140-180 km/h are expected in the central part of the system, producing a high risk for damage and potential life-threatening conditions. Additionally, excessive torrential convective and orographic rainfall is expected along the coastal are and inland, with up to 30-60 mm of rainfall over a period of several hours.

A HIGH RISK has been issued for parts of west, north and central Portugal and extreme W Spain with threat for extremely severe winds and excessive rainfall. Peak gusts could well exceed 150 km/h in wetern Portugal where Leslie is expected to make landfall.

MDT/ENH RISKS have been issued for surrounding areas of HIGH risk including whole Portugal and west-central Spain for extremely severe winds and excessive rainfall.

A SLGT RISK has been issued for areas surrounding the HIGH/MDT/ENH risks including north-central Spain, Gibraltar and SW France for extremely severe winds and excessive rainfall.

Please refer to the mesoscale discussion for more details:

Update: Hurricane Leslie will make severe landfall tonight! Models in agreement