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Arctic outbreak evolution and snowfall forecast, Jan 5-7, 2017

This is a follow-up on the evolution of a significant arctic outbreak through the next few days as a very cold airmass is advecting into east-central Europe and Balkan peninsula. Once the cold upper levels slip into Mediterranean, a secondary cyclogenesis will take place over Italy and move towards Greece – it should result in excessive snowfall events, extremely cold temperatures and combined with strong winds, windchill temperatures will be locally below -25°C. The airmass over the broad area will be very cold, especially across the white-shaded areas where a few days period of arctic cold airmass with temperatures near 20 °C below average for this time is expected!

Here is the late afternoon analysis of arctic airmass spreading across Europe – very cold in Scandinavia and Baltic States, it continues across CNTRL-E Europe towards the Balkan peninsula and the Mediterranean:

https://www.facebook.com/severeweatherEU/photos/a.1423656947857402.1073741825.1377757209114043/1933668063522952/?type=3&theater

In response to the deep cyclone trailing along the southern edge of the trough and sea-effect snow, an excessive snowfall is expected over broad areas:

Northern Alps: Locally 30-75 cm of fresh snow across northern half of the Alps. Local accumulations may exceed 75 cm. Some fresh snow also over S Germany, Switzerland, the rest of Austria and Czech Republic.
WSW Balkan peninsula: locally 30-60 cm of snowfall at higher elevations as well as across N Bulgaria, E-SE Romania, Moldova and S Ukraine.
E-SE Italy: very significant Adriatic sea-effect snow as strong northeasterly Bura/Bora winds blow across the Adriatic. Expect locally up to 75 cm of sea-effect snow.
Central Greece, Attica and E parts of Thessaly:

Below is the extreme cold and excessive snowfall outlook through the next 3 days:

https://www.facebook.com/severeweatherEU/photos/a.1423656947857402.1073741825.1377757209114043/1933301966892895/?type=3&theater

Due to very sharp temperature and pressure gradient between Balkan peninsula and Adriatic sea, extremely severe Bora winds are likely along the E Adriatic coasts below Velebit mountains in Croatia, especially over Kvarner and Dalmatia regions. Gusts could locally exceed 150 km/h!

The very cold air at mid and upper levels produced some impressive convection and thunderstorms over the Adriatic sea, especially for January.

https://www.facebook.com/severeweatherEU/photos/a.1423656947857402.1073741825.1377757209114043/1933455696877522/?type=3&theater

Strong snowfall and strong winds are already being reported:

https://www.facebook.com/severeweatherEU/videos/1933226960233729/

https://www.facebook.com/severeweatherEU/videos/1933477730208652/

https://www.facebook.com/severeweatherEU/posts/1933447983544960

https://www.facebook.com/severeweatherEU/videos/1933226053567153/

https://www.facebook.com/severeweatherEU/videos/1933686810187744/

https://www.facebook.com/severeweatherEU/videos/1933680486855043/

https://www.facebook.com/severeweatherEU/videos/1933699380186487/

Here is an overview of the pattern itself, revealing a strong upper ridge over western Europe and a deep cold with arctic airmass pushed onto the Balkan peninsula and Mediterranean tonight. Near -20 °C over W Balkan at around 1500 m ASL, significant temperature anomaly and very low windchill temperature:

https://www.facebook.com/severeweatherEU/photos/a.1423656947857402.1073741825.1377757209114043/1933452403544518/?type=3&theater

Follow snowfall with the following radars:

Related: Arctic outbreak across E Scandinavia, eastern and central Europe and the Balkans, Jan 3-7, 2017

Beautiful snowflake and ice crystal photos submitted by our readers
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