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A powerful Nor’easter cyclone is developing along the northeast coast of the US. It will peak in strength early on Thursday local time, bringing a severe windstorm, major waves and large amounts of rainfall to New England region!

As of 18h UTC the deepening surface low was located on the border of Virginia and Delaware at a central surface (MSL) pressure of 1001 mbar, having deepened by 7 mbar in the past 6 hours. Explosive cyclogenesis is underway! The surface low will further explosively deepen, to 992 mbar by 00h UTC (Oct 17th), 982 mbar by 06h UTC and bottoming out around 972 mbar around 10h UTC on Thursday. This will have resulted in about 36 mbar drop in 22 hours, true explosive cyclogenesis.

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Total peak wind gusts for October 17th (bottom). NAM model guidance. Map: Wxcharts.

Severe easterly winds will develop off shore and along the coast of eastern Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachussets, New Hampshire and Maine. Peak winds gusts will reach 120-150 km/h (75-90 mph); latest model guidance puts the strongest winds along the coast of Maine, however, peak wind region will strongly depend on the exact track of the cyclone and could shift somewhat.

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Aggregated mean wind on Thursday. Widespread gale and severe gale force winds. Locally storm force winds. NAM model guidance. Map: Wxcharts.

Large waves will affect the coastal region: expect waves in 3-6 m range in exposed places along the northeast coast from Rhode Island to Maine. Waves up to 5-10 m are expected over the open sea east of New England and south of Nova Scotia.

Additionally, large amounts of rainfall are expected from this system. Up to 3-6″ (75-150 mm) will accumulated across parts of New York, Connecticut, Massachussets, Vermont, New Hampshire and Rhode Island. Expect local flooding!

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Total accumulated rainfall over northeastern USA by early on Friday. NAM model guidance. Map: Wxcharts.


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