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Severe thunderstorms likely across southern France today, June 27, 2017

Severe thunderstorms are likely across southern France in the afternoon and evening today. A long wave trough passes over the Iberian Peninsula eastwards, producing a strong 40-50 kt mid-level jetstreak. It combines with a moderately unstable environment and will likely produce a series of severe thunderstorms.

500 mbar winds and height, GFS model guidance. Map: Pivotal Weather.

The left exit of the jetstreak passes over S France, providing upper level forcing. A surface low develops over southern France, moving ENE-wards during the late afternoon. Ahead of the system, southeasterly backing surface winds overlap with the mid-level jet and produce up to 30-45 kt deep-layer shear and up to 200 m2/s2 SREH3. Expect organized thunderstorms with isolated supercells.

Instability across the region, WRF model guidance. Map:

Simulate radar reflectivity across the region, WRF model guidance. Map:

Initially fairly isolated storms will likely rapidly merge into a large MCS moving eastwards. Any initially isolated supercell will present a significant threat for large to very large hail, severe wind gusts and torrential rainfall. The MCS will present threats for severe winds and torrential rainfall.

Severe thunderstorms possible in southern France, northeastern Spain tomorrow, June 27, 2017
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Outlook day 1 (valid: 28/06/2017)
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