Mesoscale Discussion #005 (valid 19/05/2014 16-21 UTC)

Storms are initiating along the W coast of France and Bay of Biscay as of 15:30 UTC. Latest sfc data shows surface temperatures in 22-27 °C and dewpoints in 10-14 °C range in the MDT risk area and 20-25 / 10-14 °C in the SLGT risk area further north into UK. Favourable backing SE winds are present in the region at 10-20 kt. Moderate instability is present in the region with 1000-1500 J/kg SBCAPE at the moment, expected to increase to 2000 J/kg in the north of France during the evening hours. Favourable overlap with 30-50 kt DLS over the entire region provides conditions for organized thunderstorms. Main threats with these storms include marginally large hail to large hail, strong rainfall and strong wind gusts. A tornado is also not ruled out, particularly over SW France.