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Locally severe thunderstorms across eastern France, northwestern Italy and southern Germany today – August 1, 2018

Quite an interesting afternoon ahead for eastern France, northwest Italy and particularly south to southwestern Germany: expect widespread thunderstorm activity across the region. There is moderate to high instability available with 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, locally up to 3000 J/kg. Deep layer shear is fairly marginal at 20-25 kt supporting the development of multicell clusters. Local interference of winds and relief effects can result in a supercell or two as well. Main threats with these storms will be torrential rainfall and local flooding, severe straight line winds and large hail. If a supercell develops, very large hail is not ruled out.

Simulated IR brightness temperature across the region, indicating numerous thunderstorm anvils in the afternoon. AROME model guidance. Map:

Moderate to high instability across the region. WRF model guidance. Map:

Simulated radar reflectivity, indicating numerous powerful storms. WRF model guidance. Map: