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Before the cold outbreak next week an *EXTREME* warmth develops across the southern half of Europe after by the end of this weekend

Many eyes are looking into the next week’s pattern flip and cold outbreak, as winter 2019/20 has been very mild across many parts of Europe. The ongoing pattern is again supporting ridging over our continent with additional strengthening of the upper-level ridge this weekend. It will result in extreme temperature anomaly across south-central Europe and the Balkan peninsula – daytime temperatures will be 10-15 °C warmer than normal for early February and will locally push into low 20s °C!

The developing pattern across our continent this weekend consists of strengthening upper-level ridge over the southern half of Europe after Saturday, peaking on Monday before a deep trough pushed the cold outbreak from the north on Tuesday. At the same time on Tuesday, upper-level ridge also expands over the North Atlantic, so a more meridional flow establishes over western Europe towards the Mediterranean region.

Here is the sequence of the extreme warmth developing across southern Europe this weekend. As a strong ridging develops, a combination of air mass subsidence and warm advection with the westerly zonal flow results in a significant increase in temperature across southern and central Europe until Monday, spreading into the Balkan peninsula on Tuesday. Notice a developing cold outbreak over western Europe, which will replace the warmth with much colder airmass through mid-week.

Close-up view over the extreme temperature anomalies in the lowest levels across the southeast Europe:

850 mbar (approx. 1500 m ASL) temperature anomalies:

2m temperature anomaly:

Peak afternoon temperatures will easily climb into mid to upper 10s from Sunday to Tuesday, even exceeding 20 °C threshold in parts of the Balkans on Tuesday when the warmest air mass will spread there! Low 20s are also likely across parts of south-central Italy.

After Tuesday, a much colder air mass arrives from west-northwest as the cold outbreak is expected to spread over a large part of Europe:

*10-20 day forecast* North Atlantic Oscillation explodes and the Pacific North American pattern drops negative. As ridging dominates the Pacific, pressure starts to drop massively again in the North Atlantic.