Hurricane Season 2024 forecast: The first Major Storm - Beryl will graze into the Caribbean next week

The Atlantic Hurricane Season 2024 will again take advantage of the record-high water temperatures. These conditions could lead to cyclones strengthening faster than usual and becoming more intense. July starts with the very first hurricane of the season; Tropical storm Beryl is here.

The Atlantic Ocean waters are boiling and, therefore, anomalously warm compared to normal, meaning activity could ramp up very soon. A couple of tropical waves are moving west across the west-central Atlantic, and at least one of them will become a hurricane, a Tropical storm Beryl, tracking into the Caribbean region.

Forecast conditions suggest that Beryl will likely become the first hurricane of the Atlantic Season 2024.

As global weather is a very complex system of chaos theory, weather dynamics and patterns are also very different worldwide. Tropical dynamics are one of the more complicated things involving many factors—the perfect combination of these leads to dangerous tropical weather threats for land and property.

During an average tropical year, the Atlantic hurricane season produces up to 14 named tropical storms. On average, seven typically become hurricanes, with around 3 reaching the major strength (hurricane of a Category 3 or greater).

A typical Atlantic hurricane season has two peaks. The first period of increased activity occurs from early through mid-September, while the second boost typically happens through mid-October. Statistically, the general increase in activity across the tropical Atlantic typically begins in the trough early/mid-August.

As we head into the final days of July, the hot Atlantic Ocean sea waters coincide with the MJO wave, moving east across the central Atlantic. At the same time, tropical waves are ejecting from western Africa and being pushed towards the central Atlantic, developing conditions for increased tropical activity.

The animation below shows these waves and the corresponding cyclonic activity in the western Atlantic over the next ten days. At least one approaching the Caribbean from the central Atlantic will soon strengthen and become the next tropical storm, Beryl.

The other systems are in less favorable conditions and have only minor chances to see a significant increase in their development.

Satellite imagery Saturday morning shows that Beryl has become better organized, forming a cold curved convective band near the center and over the western semicircle.

Note that hurricane development is a particular formation in the tropical region. It is susceptible to atmospheric conditions at a given time. The MJO mentioned above wave strongly influences the state of the atmosphere, thus allowing tropical storms or hurricanes to develop.

These systems usually require a hot sea temperature (26 °C or above), very high moisture, and low vertical wind shear through the atmosphere. The tropical wave helps develop a surface low-pressure system.

When these ingredients come together, a tropical cyclone could quickly become a hurricane or even a violent, major hurricane of a greater than Category 3 strength. This happens when all the required conditions are near perfect.

Unlike the mid-latitudes, the tropical region has no warm or cold fronts. Weather activity generally combines showers and thunderstorms with larger-scale pressure and wind variability. Most tropical variability is driven by invisible wave-like features in the atmosphere worldwide.

The two most essential waves are the MJO and Kelvin waves. These two are the second and third most needed ingredients after the warmth of the oceanic waters, respectively.

The exceptionally warmer-than-average temperature continues over the North Atlantic Basin

These so-called marine heat waves are becoming more frequent and intense in recent years. This year, they are more persistent and spread over large areas. It is hard work to find near-normal or colder spots of the Atlantic now.

The tropical central and western Atlantic regions remain well above normal as we head into the second month of meteorological summer 2024. This correlates well with what is typically seen before active Atlantic hurricane season. The near-term SST anomaly forecast also hints that temperatures will continue to rise.

We expect the North Atlantic’s sea waters to be sufficiently warm to support significant tropical development during the peak of the hurricane season, which is from mid/late August into September this year.

During the summer months, we closely monitor Western Africa’s weather conditions. This is where the tropical waves emerge into the eastern Atlantic Ocean. Data shows that nearly 85% of these waves lead to organized deep convection over the warmer oceans and become tropical depressions or storms.

MJO wave – Atlantic Hurricane Season booster

Recently, we have been tracking a developing tropical wave over western Africa that is gradually moving west towards the central Atlantic. These waves initiated tropical activity through late June and should continue to affect the first half of July.

Recent active tropical waves over the central Atlantic are caused by the MJO wave aloft, known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation or short MJO. It is a significant factor in tropical activity and cyclone formation worldwide.

The MJO is the largest and most dominant source of short-term tropical variability. This eastward-moving wave of convective showers and thunderstorms typically circles the planet in about 30 to 60 days.

When an enhanced phase of the MJO enters the tropical Atlantic, the activity is typically increased for up to two weeks. This wave increases rainfall during its enhanced phase and decreases wind shear. As we learned earlier, low shear is needed for active tropical cyclones.

Besides the MJO wave, other waves are directly related to the large-scale wave as MJO is. Those are the atmospheric Kelvin waves that are smaller than the MJO. These waves are tropical rainfall systems characterized by westerly and easterly wind patterns.

Tropical wave activity increases as June ends; Storm Beryl is coming up for the Caribbean

Several waves are now emerging into the western and central Atlantic, and at least one has already been upgraded into a tropical storm – Beryl. These disturbances developed in the Main Development Region soon after the strong thunderstorm activity ejected off the coast of western Africa.

The first wave has a broad and elongated area of low pressure located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean. The environmental conditions are expected to be generally conducive to gradual development in the following days. Beryl is expected to become a hurricane as it reaches the Windward Islands late Sunday night into Monday.

The region will likely experience heavy rainfall, hurricane-force winds, and dangerous storm surges and waves. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect for portions of the Caribbean region.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasts that Beryl will become a well-organized hurricane during the first week of July.

The following two charts indicate the latest ECMWF weather model tracks for the Beryl, represented by wind and precipitation swaths.

Some weather models hint that storm Beryl could become a major hurricane while tracking across the northern portions of the Caribbean Sea next week. This would be rare as major hurricanes (Category 3 or greater) usually form closer to the Atlantic season’s peak.

Atlantic Hurricane Season 2024 Forecast

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season officially started on June 1st. After mid-August, the activity typically increases toward the peak in September and October.

There was already one Tropical Storm (Alberto) this year. This year, the neutral ENSO phase will gradually move towards La Nina, which is forecast to bring higher activity due to a typically expected weaker wind shear in the tropical region.

The hotter-than-ever sea waters of the North Atlantic are expected to increase activity, mainly in terms of the more rapid strengthening of tropical cyclones and their peak intensity. Research studies have found that the warmer the waters are, the higher the potential for more intense hurricanes.

The seasonal forecasts from the Colorado State University (CSU), led by Dr. Phil Klotzbach, hint at 23 named tropical systems, with eleven hurricanes and five major storms forecast for hurricane season 2024. That’s well above the 30-year average. Based on the long-term average, a hurricane season typically brings 14 named storms, seven hurricanes where three reach a major intensity (Category 3 or greater).

The Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) is also forecast to be much higher than average. This metric compares tropical cyclones’ overall activity, typically 123 for the whole season. For 2024, the CSU forecast calls it above 200.

Judging by these pre-peak outlooks, the Atlantic hurricane season 2024 will likely be much stronger than in recent years. To keep things on track, the 2023 hurricane season produced 21 total systems, 20 of which were storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.

Franklin and Idalia (Category 4), and Lee (Category 5) were the major hurricanes from late August through mid-September 2023. Below is a NOAA visible satellite view of Category 4 Hurricane Idalia in the final days of August when it was over the eastern Gulf Coast.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th. We monitor these storms in the Atlantic basin, which covers the tropical areas of the Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Caribbean region.

The long-term average of tropical systems in the Atlantic Basin (taken over the last 70 years – between 1951 and 2020) holds 11 named storms in one hurricane season. However, the short-term average (taken during the previous 15 years – between 1995 and 2020) is higher, with around 14 named storms. We can notice a gradual increase in the number of storms.

While a La Nina global weather pattern influenced the 2020-2022 seasons, the 2023 hurricane season had an El Nino effect. El Nino is known to lead to lesser tropical activity due to stronger wind shear in the Atlantic Basin, but activity last year was still above average.

The above-average Atlantic seawater temperatures have led to a busy hurricane season despite the effects of El Nino. These warmer-than-normal sea temperatures are also observed across the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico this year, while La Nina will gradually form late in 2024.

This indicates that hotter-than-ever ocean waters will fuel upcoming tropical cyclone formation as hurricane season activity ramps up.

A tropical storm or hurricane organizes and gains its strength when specific weather conditions are met. Typically, hurricanes need a low-shear environment with hot sea waters, which results in plenty of very moist air mass above the sea.

The record-warm North Atlantic is likely to boost tropical storm and hurricane activity

As we discussed earlier above, the exceptionally high water temperatures across the Atlantic, including the Main Development Region, have something that has never been observed before. This means that one of the main conditions that fuel tropical cyclones is particularly anomalous – the heat content.

For a tropical storm and a hurricane to form, two meteorological features must be present:

A weather disturbance, such as a cluster or thunderstorm that pulls in warm surface air (dewpoints) from all directions
The water at the ocean’s surface has to be at least 79° Fahrenheit (26° Celsius)

Because we interact with warm air and seawater that spawns these storms, tropical cyclones form over the oceans between about 5 and 20 degrees of latitude. At these latitudes, seawater is warm enough to give the storms strength and the rotation of the Earth, which makes them spin.

So, in general, hurricanes start with the evaporation of warm seawater, which pumps water into the lower atmosphere. This significantly humid air mass is dragged aloft when converging winds collide and turn upwards.

As air rises into higher altitudes, water vapor condenses into clouds and rain, releasing heat that warms the surrounding air, causing it to rise with the air far above the sea moving upward; even more, warm, moist air spirals in from along the surface to replace it.

Therefore, as long as the base of this weather system remains over warm water and high-altitude winds do not shear apart its top, the tropical cyclone will strengthen and grow. More and more heat and water will be pumped into the air.

The surface central pressure at its core will drop further, sucking in the wind at ever-increasing speeds. Over several hours to days, the tropical storm (cyclone) will intensify, finally reaching hurricane strength. A tropical system in the Atlantic officially gets a Hurricane status when the winds that swirl around it reach sustained speeds of 74 miles per hour (64 knots or 119 km/h) or more.

Warmer oceans provide more potential energy for tropical systems, leading to stronger storms or even more rapid intensification when they grow. Recent studies have shown a link between ocean surface temperatures and tropical storm intensity—warmer waters lead to more intense storms.

So, as we learned, the two main ingredients tropical systems need for their formation and strengthening are (1) a weather disturbance and (2) warm ocean waters. The latter has been in the record values for the whole North Atlantic.

The above chart represents the Atlantic Ocean’s average temperature over the years, with the 2024 curve running significantly out of the normal standard deviation, similar to 2023. This has been so anomalous since last summer. It is hard to find near or below-normal temperatures right now; the Atlantic Ocean is overheating.

This happened weeks before the seasonal peak, which generally occurs in September, right at the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season.

North Atlantic average sea temperatures will remain extremely high within several weeks. This increases the chance that upcoming tropical systems and hurricanes will take advantage of these conditions and support explosive and rapidly developing storms.

Hurricane season 2024 has already had one storm (Alberto) so far

The WMO’s international committee (the World Meteorological Organization) has designated 21 storm names for the Atlantic hurricane season 2024. The list with all the storm names, starting with Alberto and ending with William, can be seen below.

So far, one tropical system has formed in the first month of this Hurricane Season. Alberto was a tropical storm that brought significant rainfall to south Texas and especially Mexico in mid-June.

We use tropical cyclones’ names for one main reason – to help quickly identify storms in warning messages.

Names simplify user communication, with Alphabetical order of storms

Systems with a certain name are presumed to be much easier for the public and meteorologists to remember. Therefore, they are made easier like this, compared to numbers and other more technical terms that could be used for their identification among meteorological offices and the public.

Above: Hurricane Don in mid-July 2023

Besides simple storm names, the general media also finds it easier to report on tropical systems forming, so the warning messages with storm names are straightforward information for anyone involved in their path.

Ultimately, these simple messages increase public awareness regarding hazardous weather events, which is the most important.

Furthermore, the advantages of the storm names are pretty significant in exchanging detailed information about the ongoing systems between various users, including coastal bases and ships traveling at sea, and indeed also between the various meteorological offices (e.g., Storm Prediction Center, which focuses on convective outlooks across the U.S. and the National Hurricane Center).

To obtain the most valuable information from a storm naming system, NOAA meteorologists alphabetically arranged a list of names.

Therefore, this year, a storm with a name that begins with the letter ‘A,’ Tropical Storm Alberto, was the first storm to occur. The last letter is ‘W.’ Therefore, William, it will be for the hurricane season 2024.

Safety Preparedness during a Hurricane Season

Have a plan

The official hurricane season in the North Atlantic and the Caribbean starts on June 1st and ends on November 30th. This is when you and your family must be prepared by planning.

Write down emergency phone numbers and keep them on the refrigerator or near every phone in your house. It would help if you also programmed them into your cell phone.
Prepare an emergency supply kit.
Locate the nearest shelter in your area and different routes from your home in an emergency. If shelter locations in your area have yet to be identified, learn how to find them before the event of a storm.
Pet owners: Take care of your pets at pre-identify shelters, a pet-friendly hotel, or an out-of-town friend or relative where you can take your pets in case of an evacuation. Local animal shelters can offer advice on what to do with your pets if you are asked to evacuate your home during a hurricane.

Learn the difference between a hurricane “Watch” and “Warning”

When you listen to the National Weather Service alerts on TV or radio or check for them online, there are two kinds of alerts:

A hurricane watch means hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 miles per hour [mph] or higher) are possible in a stated area. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) will announce hurricane watches 48 hours before they expect tropical storm-force winds (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) to start.
A hurricane warning is a more severe threat. This means that hurricane-force winds are expected in a stated area. NHC issued these warnings 36 hours before tropical storm-force winds were expected in the area to give people enough time to prepare for the storm.

Check out the National Weather Service’s Hurricane Center for more information about hurricane watches and warnings. If you hear a hurricane watch or warning in your area, you can take steps to get ready.

Get your car ready to leave home if needed

Make sure your car is ready before the tropical storm or hurricane hits.

Fill the gas in your car’s tank.
Move cars and trucks into your garage or under cover.
Always keep an emergency kit in your car.

If you don’t own a car, consider making plans with friends and family or call authorities to get a ride if you need to evacuate.

Get your family and pets ready

Go over your emergency plan with your family; understand everything.
Keep checking for weather updates about the storm. You can watch TV, listen to the radio, or check the NHC website online.
Call the hospital, public health department, or the police about special needs. If you or a loved one is older or disabled and won’t be able to leave quickly, get their advice on what to do.
Put pets and farm animals in a safe place.

Get your home ready

Clear your yard to ensure nothing could blow around during the storm and damage your home. Move bikes, lawn furniture, grills, propane tanks, and building materials inside or under the shelter.
Cover up house windows and doors. Use storm shutters or nail pieces of plywood to the outside window frames to protect your windows. This can help keep you safe from flying debris and pieces of shattered glass.
Be ready to turn off your power if you see flooding, downed power lines, or you have to leave your home. Switch your power off completely.
If you lose your water supply during the storm, fill clean containers with drinking water. You can also fill your sinks and bathtubs with water for washing.
Double-check your carbon monoxide (CO) detector’s battery to prevent CO poisoning.

Be ready to evacuate or stay at home

During a hurricane warning, always listen to authorities regarding whether you should evacuate or stay home.

If a hurricane is coming, you may hear an order from authorities to evacuate (leave your home). Never ignore an order to evacuate. Sturdy, well-built houses may not hold up against a hurricane’s power. Staying home to protect your property is not worth risking your family’s health and safety.

There are occasions when you may hear an order to stay at home. If driving conditions are too dangerous, staying home might be safer than leaving. Respect the authorities’ decisions.

If you need to evacuate:

Grab your emergency supply kit and only take what you need (cell phone, chargers, medicines, identification like a passport or license, and cash).
Unplug your appliances. If you have enough time, turn off the gas, electricity, and water.
Follow the roads that emergency workers recommend, even if dense traffic is expected. Other routes might be blocked or already flooded. Never drive through flooded areas, as cars and other vehicles can be swept away or may stall in just 6 inches of moving water.
Contact your local emergency management office and ask if they offer accommodations for owners and pets.

If you need to stay home:

Keep your emergency supply kit anywhere where you can easily access it anytime.
Follow weather updates online from NHC, and listen to the radio or TV for updates on the hurricane.
Stay inside. Even if it looks calm, don’t go outside. Wait until you hear an official message that the hurricane is over. Sometimes, the weather gets calm in the middle of a storm but then quickly worsens again.
Stay away from windows. You could get hurt by flying debris, such as pieces of broken glass or other objects picked up by winds around the neighborhood during the storm. Stay in a room without windows or go inside a closet.
Be ready to leave home. If emergency authorities order you to leave or your home is severely damaged, you may need to go to a shelter or a neighbor’s house.

Our expert forecaster team will actively follow the tropical region activity worldwide, including Atlantic Basin systems and tropical cyclones likely to affect the United States, the Caribbean, and Europe again in the following months.

Stay tuned for further follow-up posts, in-depth forecast discussions, and nowcasting during the coming weeks and throughout the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season 2023 peak months. We will prepare you.

Copernicus, Climate Reanalyzer, NOAA, NHC, Colorado State University, Tropical Tidbits, and WHO provided images used in this article.