VALID FOR 13 & 14-10-2018

SYNOPSIS

Hurricane Leslie is rapidly moving ENE over the Atlantic ocean, undergoing extratropical transition, approaching the Iberian peninsula for landfall tonight. The system is moving just ahead of a cold front, which was also associated with cyclone Callum yesterday. Leslie is currently looking very healthy, with a strong central dense overcast, vigorous convection and hurricane force max sustained winds of approximately 125 km/h.

DISCUSSION

The system will interact with the cold front behind it and is expected to strengthen significantly just at the time of landfall. Leslie is expected to make landfall around 21-00h UTC about 150-200 km north of Lisbon, Portugal. Peak gusts of 140-180 km/h are expected in the central part of the system, producing a high risk for damage and potential life-threatening conditions. Additionally, excessive torrential convective and orographic rainfall is expected along the coastal are and inland, with up to 30-60 mm of rainfall over a period of several hours.

A HIGH RISK has been issued for parts of west, north and central Portugal and extreme W Spain with threat for extremely severe winds and excessive rainfall. Peak gusts could well exceed 150 km/h in wetern Portugal where Leslie is expected to make landfall.

MDT/ENH RISKS have been issued for surrounding areas of HIGH risk including whole Portugal and west-central Spain for extremely severe winds and excessive rainfall.

A SLGT RISK has been issued for areas surrounding the HIGH/MDT/ENH risks including north-central Spain, Gibraltar and SW France for extremely severe winds and excessive rainfall.

Please refer to the mesoscale discussion for more details:

Update: Hurricane Leslie will make severe landfall tonight! Models in agreement