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Yet another typhoon, Bualoi, has formed in the western Pacific and is heading towards Mariana islands first, then gradually turning its curvature north towards Japan. Bualoi is traveling across the unusually warm waters east of Guam right now and is gaining organization and strength. The future track will bring the typhoon towards Japan, which however is, based on the current model simulations, not in the immediate landfall track yet.

Latest satellite imagery reveals Bualoi is beginning organizing with bursts of deep convection around the center of the low. As of this morning Oct 20th 06 UTC, Bualoi is located about 620 km ESE of Andersen Air Force Base, Guam. Maximum 1-minute sustained winds are at 65 knots (120 km/h; 75 mph), with gusts up to 80 knots (150 km/h; 90 mph). The minimum central barometric pressure is 985 mbar.

Satellite imagery of a developing typhoon Bualoi as of Oct 20th 06 UTC. Images: Himawari-8 / NOAA

Bualoi is currently in very favorable conditions with low shear and very warm sea waters, the Ocean Heat Content (OHC) map indicates typhoon will stay in a similar environment for almost three more days, which should allow Bualoi to intensify into at least a Category 3 typhoon by Tuesday evening.

Ocean Heat Content (OHC) map around Bualoi. Image: RAMMB

The future track will first bring Bualoi across northern Mariana islands, likely affecting Tinian and Saipan islands, although the typhoon’s center will be further north of the islands. Bualoi will likely reach a strong Category 3 or even Category 4 strength by Tuesday evening local time, packing winds of 110-115 knots (200-215 km/h; 120-130 mph) and central pressure below 950 mbar.

The future track of typhoon Bualoi. Images: JTWC / Tropical Tidbits

GFS model guidance of the peak wind gust track across the western Pacific – typhoon Bualoi’s track curvature is perfectly visible.

Peak gusts track of typhoon Bualoi. Image: WXCharts.com

Stay tuned for further updates of the Bualoi’s track and strengthening!


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