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Update on the ongoing heat wave over Spain and Portugal – August 2, 2018

An intense heat wave is ramping up across parts of Spain and Portugal. Temperatures already reached 43 °C and likely up to 45 °C yesterday. Expect temperatures to climb higher over the next few days. We take a look at the latest model guidance for the next 4 days. Trends are still on track for top temperatures to be reached on Saturday.

Thursday, August 2

Peak temperatures will likely be reached in W-CNTRL Portugal and SW Spain. Daytime highs of 44-45 °C are expected in Andalusia and Badajoz. There is some scatter in peak temperatures: GFS appears somewhat optimistic with 45-46 °C in W Portugal, however, its track record for SW Spain suggests its forecast for 43-44 °C in the region is likely pretty spot on. ARPEGE indicates 44-45 °C, while ICON-EU indicates 43-44 °C in SE Portugal and up to 41-42 °C in SW Spain. In addition, southerly mid-level winds are pushing large amounts of Saharan dust into the same region.

Friday, August 3

Daytime highs are expected to peak at 44-46 °C in Andalusia and Badajoz, Spain, possibly also around 45 °C in parts of SW Portugal. See GFS, ICON-EU and ARPEGE model guidance below.

Next page: Saturday (the hottest day) and Sunday.