Latest forecast data shows an El Niño to return in 2026, strengthening in the second half of the year and lasting through the 2026/2027 season. If it develops, El Niño can reshape global weather patterns, with a strong influence expected over the United States and Canada during the next winter season.
New analysis already shows changing global conditions, equal to those expected before an El Niño appears, adding support to the forecast outlook.
In this article, we will cover the most important points for 2026 weather development in the Northern Hemisphere:
- A quick look at what ENSO is and how it works
- First signs of change, already seen in the global weather system
- The latest seasonal predictions with a clear El Niño anomaly
- How El Niño shapes the Winter weather patterns in the United States, Canada, and Europe, based on past events
HOW THE OCEAN SHAPES THE ATMOSPHERE
El Niño (warm) and La Niña (cold) are two phases of the ENSO event, which stands for “El Niño Southern Oscillation.” This region of the equatorial Pacific Ocean regularly shifts between warm and cold phases. Typically, there is a phase change around every 1-3 years.
The last El Niño event occurred during the 2023/2024 season. But a more famous El Niño season was the 2009/2010, with proper winter cold and snow across the United States, southern Canada, and Europe.
The image below shows the ENSO regions across the tropical Pacific. The main area covers the central part, shown in the image as the Niño 3.4 region. In this region, we determine the ENSO phases by looking at the seasonal sea-surface temperature anomalies (warmer/colder).
Each ENSO phase influences the tropical pressure and rainfall patterns differently. This affects the overall global circulation over time, changing the weather patterns worldwide.
In the image below, we have a direct comparison between the ocean temperature anomalies during a warm and a cold ENSO event. Both examples show real data from the 10 strongest events for each phase.
During an El Niño event, pressure over the tropical Pacific is lower, leading to increased rainfall and storm activity in this region. But during a La Niña, the pressure over the equatorial Pacific is higher, creating stable conditions and fewer storms.
The following image from NOAA shows the typical atmospheric circulation during an El Niño event. Rising air in the eastern Pacific increases precipitation and lowers pressure over that region. At the same time, descending air in the western Pacific produces stable weather and high-pressure conditions.
This way, ENSO strongly impacts the tropical rainfall and pressure patterns, affecting the ocean-atmosphere feedback system. Through this ocean-atmosphere system, the ENSO can influence global pressure anomalies and daily weather.
FIRST OCEAN CHANGES ARE EMERGING
The latest ocean analysis below shows the main ENSO region that we watch. You can see the cold anomaly of the current La Niña, but it is a weak event. It has just reached its peak in recent weeks, with its weakening now expected over the Winter.
Below, you can see the ENSO anomaly data for the past 3 months. The La Niña cooling is clearly visible, peaking in late November. But lately, the ENSO temperature anomaly has started to rise back, signaling that the end has begun for the La Niña. Image by cyclonicwx
Below is the latest 30-day ocean temperature change, where you can see the warming trend in the western ENSO region. There is still some mixing going on in the rest of the region, but it appears that the end of this La Niña is starting from the west.
Below is a special graphic that shows the changing SST anomalies over the past 6 months. This fully reveals the growing La Niña event since late summer. But you can also see the cold anomalies starting to shrink from the west, and also some reduction on the eastern side.
An almost invisible change is also occurring deep below the ocean surface. The image below shows the subsurface ocean temperature anomalies. You can see a large warm pool in the west, at around 100-250m (300-800ft) depth. This is one of the reasons for the La Niña weakening coming from the west, as these anomalies expand below the surface.
This is similar to the last El Niño event, which was in the season of 2023/2024. Below is a video that shows the subsurface ocean development before/during the last event, where you can see a very similar start of this subsurface anomaly.
A strong subsurface warm pool is the first clear sign of an impending El Niño event. That is why we closely monitor the atmospheric winds, pressure changes, and ocean currents across the tropical Pacific, which create and amplify these anomalies.
EL NIÑO SIGNAL IN SEASONAL PREDICTIONS
The main clear indication of the El Niño on the horizon is seen in the latest seasonal forecast for the ENSO region. The ECMWF forecast takes it into the proper El Niño range during Summer 2026, lasting well into Winter. Currently, this indicates a moderate strength event, but it typically ends up stronger than forecast.
To check the accuracy of this extended forecast, we can look at its success before the last El Niño event. Below you can see the same forecast from November 2022, with the analysis line added. You can see a very accurate result in this range, with the forecast even underestimating the peak strength of the upcoming event.
The PSL official probabilistic ENSO forecast has shifted into El Niño mode for 2026/2027, giving a full El Niño state by Fall 2026. This actually shows the event peaking during Winter, potentially lasting for a second year. You can also see the rapid decline of the current La Niña event.
Looking at the June ocean forecast by the ECMWF, you can see a clear El Niño warm anomaly expanding across the tropical Pacific. This is not the only model that shows this, with other forecasting systems also hinting at a warm ENSO trend and an emerging El Niño in 2026.
Another sign of an upcoming El Niño was identified more than two decades ago in a study by Vimont et al. (2003). It showed how specific North Pacific pressure patterns help forecast upcoming El Niño events. Below is the winter sea-level pressure (SLP) pattern preceding El Niño events in the past 70 years.
As you can see, the main pattern is a high-pressure system in the far North Pacific. Under that system is a low-pressure area, driving westerly winds across the tropical Pacific, weakening the trade winds and reducing the ocean surface cooling.
The EMCWF pressure forecast for this Winter shows a very similar pattern. A strong surface high-pressure system with an underlying low-pressure area. This increases confidence that a weak or moderate El Niño event will develop sometime in mid-to-late 2026.
To recap the information so far, we already see the global changes that indicate an El Niño is likely for 2026, and the long-range forecasts also predict it. Now we can look at what weather patterns we can expect in El Niño Winter over the United States, Canada, and Europe.
EL NIÑO WINTER WEATHER: WHAT REAL DATA SHOWS
During the winter season, an El Niño usually brings a strong and persistent low-pressure area in the North Pacific. That pushes the polar jet stream further north, bringing warmer-than-normal temperatures to the northern United States and western Canada.
But the southerly Pacific jet stream is amplified during an El Niño, bringing lower pressure with plenty of precipitation and cooler weather to the southern United States.
The image below shows the average winter pressure pattern for all El Niño winters since 1950. You can see the strong low-pressure area in the North Pacific, typical of an El Niño. A high-pressure zone is focused over Canada, with a low-pressure storm track and precipitation across the southern and eastern United States.
Below are temperature anomalies for the same winters. The average El Niño winter usually brings colder temperatures to the southern and eastern United States and across the central Plains. The northern half of the United States is warmer than usual, with the anomalies spreading into southern Canada.
An El Niño event also changes the snowfall patterns, as shown in the image below. You can see less snowfall in the northern United States and the Midwest during the El Niño winter. But more snowfall is seen over eastern Canada, in the central and southern United States, across the Plains, and also over the eastern United States and into the Northeast.
This is mainly due to low-pressure systems trailing across the southern United States. With cooler air and moisture (if available), the chances of snowfall increase in the southern half of the country and towards the east. But a lot depends on the availability of the cold air from the north.
Less snowfall is seen over the Midwest, but that is likely associated with a lack of precipitation overall, very typical for an El Niño winter.
After passing Canada and the United States, the jet stream moves into the North Atlantic, where it can take different paths toward Europe. But the ENSO effects are much less direct in Europe than in North America.
Still, we can also look at the same data for Europe, but keep in mind there is usually more noise this far away from the main ENSO region. Here, we can see a low-pressure tendency over the north, with the subtropical ridge pushing in over the southwest.
What this brings is a northerly flow into northwestern parts, with a cooler tendency over the UK and Ireland, and across the northern parts of the continent. At the same time, a southwesterly ridge brings some mild potential over the west-central regions.
But looking at the El Niño snowfall anomalies, you can really see the path of the colder air, creating more snowfall potential from the southern UK, across central Europe, and into the southeast. This shows the potential cold air corridor, with more snowfall also across the central parts.
Here we also have to keep in mind that this is an average of many El Niño winters in the past decades. So some of the older and colder winters can shift this average image, looking a bit more snowy and colder when compared to more recent trends.
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