Outlook day 1 (valid: 20/06/2014)
VALID FOR 20-06-2014
An omega blocking pattern across western Europe and Mediterranean gradually weakening where an upper low W of Iberia slowly moving east. To the east, large upper trough centered over NE Europe pushes cold front across central Europe into N Balkans. Upper trough over SE Europe is pushed further east across the Black sea.
A MDT+ risk has been issued for extreme SE Ukraine, SW Russia, Georgia, E Black Sea and NE Turkey with threat for very lage hail, severe damaging winds, heavy excessive rain and tornadoes. Strongly sheared and helical environment coupled with moderately strong instability is favorable for a widespread severe weather outbreak. Strong tornadoes are possible as well. Area is monitored for possible upgrade into HIGH risk if conditions improve.
A MDT risk has been issued for extreme NW Black Sea into NE Bulgaria and E Romania with threat for excessive convective rain. Favorable forcing and converging flow around the centre and on the back side of the SFC low suggest very high amounts of rain are possible, causing additional flooding threat over the already saturated / flooded areas.
A SLGT risk has been issued for surroundings areas of MDT+/MDT risks where severe weather is likely, but more isolated in nature.
A SLGT+ risk has been issued for N-CNTRL Iberia with threat for severe winds, large to very large hail and heavy rain. Some tornado threat exists towards the evening hours over the northern hail of the SLGT+ area when better shear / helicity is expected. Due to uncertainities about the larger coverage of the storms, MDT risk in not warranted.
A SLGT risk has been issued for N Tunisia and NE Algeria with threat for isolated storms posing threat for severe winds, heavy rain and severe winds.
A TSTM+ area have been issued for NW Balkans with threat for some organized multicells or isolated supercell storms, enhancing threat for marginally large hail and severe winds. Limited instability precludes a SLGT risk area.
A TSTM+ area has been placed over the S Balkans where slow moving storms in moderately unstable airmass could brings flash floods and marginal hail threat in limited shear environment.