Winter 2025/2026 snowfall predictions show a global weather signal from a new La Niña event, which is already developing in the Pacific, and getting ready for Winter. From Canada to the United States and into Europe, you will see the first Snowfall predictions for the upcoming Winter season.
We will first quickly look at the La Niña, which will be the main global weather driver for the upcoming weather seasons. What does the latest ocean data show, and what are the expectations for the 2025/2026 season?
Then we will look at the snowfall predictions month-by-month for the United States, Canada, and Europe, using the two leading global long-range forecasting systems.
GLOBAL SEASONAL WEATHER IMPACT
La Niña is a cold event in the large ENSO region, found in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. This region changes between warm and cold phases around every 1-3 years. The warm phase is called El Niño, and the cold phase is called La Niña.
Below is the latest ocean anomaly analysis from NOAA CRW. It shows colder-than-normal surface waters in the central and eastern ENSO regions, with cold anomalies having a “wave” shape. This is because of the strong easterly trade winds that push the waters towards the west, creating swirls on the ocean surface.
This is the early onset of the cooling expected to fully form into a weak, but meaningful La Niña event for the 2025/2026 winter season. But these events also server as an indicator of the overall state of the global weather system, not just a driver by themselves.
Each ENSO phase significantly influences tropical rainfall, pressure patterns, and the complex dynamics between the ocean and the atmosphere. The image below shows the circulation pattern of a cold phase, which is currently developing, directly changing the atmospheric circulation.
Changing the circulation, ENSO significantly impacts tropical rainfall and pressure patterns, altering the atmosphere-ocean feedback system. This feedback system helps to spread the ENSO influence globally, changing the Winter temperature and snowfall patterns.
Below is an official multi-model forecast image, showing the long-range forecast of the ocean anomalies. You can see La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific, forecast to last over the Fall and into Winter. A weakening of the La Niña is expected during winter, with a major shift expected next year into a warm phase.
To better understand the ENSO changes, we have produced a high-resolution video animation below that shows the recent ocean temperature changes and how the cold anomalies are now expanding rapidly across the Pacific. (Video is loaded by a script, so it can get blocked by some browser extensions)
So, what exactly does this mean for the winter weather patterns and snowfall potential? We will take a closer look at the weather influence that a weak La Niña usually shows over the United States and Canada, where it has a more direct impact.
Europe is not known to have any specific/direct influences, as it is too far from the source. But that does not mean it has no impact.
La Niña does change the weather globally, but apart from the direct influence over North America, places like Europe have many other factors at play before any La Niña influence can spread this far.
NORTH AMERICA WINTER WEATHER PATTERNS
The main influence of these ocean anomalies can be seen in the changing jet stream patterns. A jet stream is a large and powerful stream of air (wind) at around 8-11km (5-7 mi) altitude, flowing like an atmospheric river.
A strong blocking high-pressure system in the North Pacific is the most typical effect of a cold ENSO phase (La Niña). That usually comes in tandem with a low-pressure area over Canada, and redirects the polar jet stream into the northern United States.
The image below shows jet stream redirection from La Niña and the resulting weather patterns developing over the United States and Canada in such Winters.
The displaced jet stream brings colder temperatures and winter storms from the polar regions down into the northern and northwestern United States. Warmer and drier winter weather prevails over the southern states.
Below is a special image, which we produced from the new high-resolution reanalysis data. It shows the temperature anomaly in all weak La Niña winters since the 1950s. You can see a strong tendency for colder temperatures over western and central Canada, and also extending into the northern and eastern United States.
Warmer-than-normal weather and mild winter conditions typically develop over the southwestern United States and eastern Canada. There are some older winters (50s-70s) in this analysis, some of which were very cold, so that can make the overall image appear a bit colder.
Since the colder air is more easily accessible to the northern United States, that increases the snowfall potential when moisture is available. In our own analysis image below, you can see the average snowfall pattern for weak La Niña years, as expected for this Winter season.
In addition to the northwestern United States and the Midwest, the northeastern United States and eastern Canada also show more snowfall potential in such ENSO conditions, and parts of the eastern United States.
Now, we will leave the analysis behind and look at the actual Winter snowfall predictions from the latest forecast models. Since the latest forecast data was released in mid-late August, the February data is not yet included, but will be added in the next update as soon as data is available.
WINTER SNOWFALL PREDICTIONS
The format of this snowfall forecast is very simple. We will look at the first results from two well-established seasonal weather forecasting systems, the ECMWF and the UKMO. The data used to produce these images is the latest available, from mid-August.
You will first see the average snowfall forecast for November-December-January, and then we will do a monthly breakdown. There are a lot of details in the monthly forecast that the whole seasonal average cannot show.
These forecasts show the snowfall anomaly, which means they show the areas forecast to receive more (or less) snowfall than normal. If an area is forecast to receive less snowfall than normal, it doesn’t mean it will receive no snow, just that less snowfall than usual is expected.
ECMWF WINTER 2025/2026 SNOWFALL FORECAST
We will start with the ECMWF, the most often used and highly regarded seasonal forecasting system.
Looking over Europe, we see below-average snowfall in the November-January period. More snowfall than normal is forecast over some parts of Scandinavia. There are some breaks in the snowfall deficit over the central parts, but interestingly, more snowfall is forecast over the southern UK area.
The individual November forecast also shows mostly below-average snowfall across Europe. Some potential for more snowfall is seen over Scandinavia, but even there, you can see that it is limited by higher elevation.
The December snowfall forecast shows less snowfall than normal over much of the continent. An area of more snowfall is over the central Balkans, the far southern UK, and a small part of Scandinavia.
The January forecast shows improved snowfall potential over much of the continent. This looks like a high-pressure anomaly over the north, which brings colder air to the continent. Increased snowfall potential is seen across the UK and central parts.
NORTH AMERICA ECMWF SNOWFALL PREDICTION
We see an interesting forecast for North America. A lot of the United States is forecast to experience below-average snowfall. This is perhaps a bit surprising, especially for the Midwest and the Northeast, which can get more snow in a weak La Niña winter.
More snowfall is forecast for the states east of the Rockies and around the Great Lakes. More snowfall is also forecast over southwestern and eastern Canada, excluding the southeast.
Less snow over the United States can also be a side-effect of usually too warm winter forecasts that were produced in August. This is known as a model bias.
The November snowfall forecast for North America shows less snowfall over the northeastern and western United States and the upper Midwest. But there are areas of more snowfall forecast over the central Rockies, the Appalachians, and across the states of Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, and Nebraska.
Another area of above-normal snowfall is across central and western Canada. This is important because a larger snow coverage over western Canada typically provides a potentially colder airmass to the United States. This is because the Polar air mass warms up more slowly when passing over a snow-covered area.
The December snowfall forecast shows marginal improvement. More snowfall is forecast over southern Canada, reaching into the northern United States and parts of the upper Midwest. Less snowfall than usual is forecast over the central and western parts.
Surprisingly, above normal snowfall is forecast in a belt across the southeastern United States.
January snowfall forecast shows an interesting pattern. A strong area of above-normal snowfall is forecast over the western parts of the United States, the upper Midwest, and the north-central United States. Less snowfall is seen over the eastern United States and the Pacific Northwest.
Overall, the January forecast perhaps looks similar to a more typical La Niña pattern, except for the Northeastern United States, which should usually get more snowfall in such a pattern.
UKMO WINTER 2025/2026 SNOWFALL FORECAST
As you can never trust a single forecast model, we use the UKMO long-range forecasting system along with the ECMWF. It was developed by the United Kingdom Met Office, which gave it its initials (UKMO).
First, looking at the seasonal average for Europe, we can see another weak snowfall forecast, much worse than the ECMWF. Most of the continent is forecast to have less snowfall than normal, except for some northern parts. But following its forecast for a few years now, it has a tendency (model bias) to show less snowfall.
The November forecast shows a below-average snow potential over much of Europe. Again, more snowfall is forecast over the northern parts, just like in the ECMWF forecast, but here its even more limited by elevation, indicating a warm month.
The December snowfall forecast shows no major improvement except for the usual higher elevations of the northern parts. The rest of the continent shows a far below normal snowfall month.
No major change is forecast for January across the continent. As the forecast shows, snowfall potential is only in the northern parts. Overall, this model shows a pretty mild winter over Europe.
We could argue which model has a better forecast, but it’s probably the ECMWF, as UKMO always seems to be a bit more (or too much) on the warmer side. Especially in its early runs, like from the August data and even September.
NORTH AMERICA UKMO SNOWFALL PREDICTION
The average UKMO seasonal forecast for North America shows more snowfall potential across the northwestern United States and western Canada. Less snowfall is forecast over much of the southern and eastern United States and over deep southeastern Canada. It looks to be limited by elevation.
The November snowfall forecast shows less snowfall than normal over much of southeastern Canada and the majority of the United States. This would indicate a pattern dominated by high pressure, which also contributes to the lesser snowfall anomaly, not just due to a warmer pattern.
The December snowfall forecast shows an improvement, with much more snowfall now over Canada and the northwestern United States. The UKMO forecast also shows more snowfall than usual over the lower Plains. Less snowfall is forecast over the Northeastern United States and the north-central Plains.
January snowfall forecast shows greatly increased snowfall amounts over much of Canada and the northwestern United States. But you can also see an area of more snowfall over the upper Midwest and southeastern Canada. Surprisingly, despite a weak La Niña, the northeastern United States is still forecast with less snowfall than usual.
This is a different forecast from the ECMWF, but that is to be expected as the forecast length increases. In the next update, we will have full Winter data, including February, providing a complete winter snowfall prediction.
Also, the La Niña event should be more developed in the ocean and thus also more “present” in the atmosphere in September, improving the overall forecast quality of the next model runs.
We will keep you updated on the developing weather trends in the coming seasons, so make sure to bookmark our page. Also, if you have seen this article in the Google App (Discover) feed, click the like button (♥) or add us to preferred sources there to see more of our forecasts and our latest articles on weather and nature in general.
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