The latest summer 2025 predictions show a dynamic summer pattern in the atmosphere over Europe. After an early start with a more disrupted weather pattern, the middle and later parts of summer look to be drier over Europe, with an increased heatwave potential.
When looking at long-range and seasonal model predictions, we must consider that many global factors can influence the weather patterns development.
We will look at the latest long-term trends for the Summer, but we have to keep in mind that these are not fixed scenarios. They will give us a good idea of the latest weather predictions and trends for Summer 2025 over Europe.
SPRING COMES TO AN END
First, we will look at how Spring unfolded so far over Europe. Meteorological spring covers the March-April-May period, and we currently have data from March 1st to May 13th, so that covers a large part of the season.
Looking at the pressure anomaly first, you can see a dominant high-pressure anomaly over northwestern Europe. The low-pressure systems mainly stayed away from central Europe, covering the southwestern and far northeastern parts.
The temperature anomaly for this period shows mostly above-normal temperatures in Spring over much of the continent. The area that stands out is perhaps southwestern Europe, under the regional influence of a low-pressure system.
There was also more rainfall over southwestern Europe, extending towards the south-central parts. This rainfall belt is mostly the impact of the regional low-pressure systems over southwestern Europe and the western Mediterranean. There was less rainfall than normal under the main high-pressure anomaly over the north-central and northwestern parts.
Before looking at the summer predictions, we have to look at the latest predictions for the spring finale and the final weather pattern before meteorological Summer begins.
ON THE DOORSTEP OF SUMMER
Below is the ensemble forecast for the final week of May, where you can see a pretty significant low-pressure anomaly dropping into Europe. This is a broad area of low pressure, affecting the whole continent. It will bring along a more northerly flow during its transition, with unsettled weather and severe weather potential.
With a high-pressure anomaly over the southwestern and the northeastern parts, this is almost the opposite weather pattern to what we have seen this spring so far.
Looking closer at the temperature pattern in this period, you can see a broad cooler anomaly over the continent. This is a weekly average, but it shows the impact of the broad low-pressure system that will drop into the continent from the north.
The rainfall forecast shows a large area of Europe with above-normal precipitation in this period. More rainfall is forecast in the direct impact area of the low-pressure system, from northwestern and northern Europe down towards the central parts, and in a cone towards the south.
Less rainfall is expected in this period over southwestern and far southeastern parts under the high-pressure anomalies.
Overall, we can see the Spring-Summer transition period will be quite vibrant across Europe, with a passage of a strong low-pressure anomaly bringing an unsettled period next week.
What about the start of Summer and the rest of the season? We will first look at the latest June weather prediction trends, and then we will look at the seasonal predictions.
JUNE 2025 WEATHER FORECAST
Starting with June, you can see the pressure pattern forecast from ECMWF below. It shows a high-pressure area indicated over the far North Atlantic and with a possible extension into northwestern Europe. A high-pressure ridge is also forecast to rise over the south.
An area of lower pressure is forecast over northeastern Europe. In June, that can mean a northerly flow to northwesterly flow over central Europe. That usually brings normal temperatures and less moisture, creating a bit more stable conditions over the central parts.
Looking closer at the June temperature pattern over Europe, we see the warmer-than-normal weather over the northwestern and southern parts. But central and northeastern regions are forecast with normal to even some below-normal temperatures in June.
This is an indication of a possible northwesterly flow over these regions, due to the pressure systems acting like a “pump”, with a high in the west and a low to the east.
The precipitation forecast also indicates a drier flow. You can see less precipitation over western, south-central, and southern Europe. This is consistent with a low-pressure area over northeastern Europe and a high-pressure area over the northwest.
More rainfall is forecast over the UK and Ireland, over north-central parts, and towards the northeast under the low-pressure area.
ECMWF SUMMER 2025 FORECAST
We will examine the long-range trends from the ECMWF, UKMO, and CANSIPS forecasting systems. ECMWF is statistically a better long-range model, so we usually start with its forecasts for the early trends.
Generally, the ECMWF model is at the top as far as “reliability” goes. But no long-range/seasonal forecasting system can be called “reliable“. This is because we only look at trends and how the weather patterns are evolving on a large scale and over longer periods.
Because we have already shown the June 2025 forecast, we will focus on the July-August-September period in this long-range part.
The ECMWF summer pressure forecast shows a low-pressure area over far northern Europe. It also shows a high-pressure system over the North Atlantic, extending across the UK and Ireland and reaching towards central Europe. Another low-pressure area is indicated further east.
Looking closer at the temperature forecast first, we see above-normal weather over a large part of the continent. The warmest anomalies are forecast over central Europe and also over some parts of the west. This shows a very likely dominance of high-pressure systems, with low-pressure systems being pushed further north than normal.
In the ECMWF precipitation forecast, you can see mostly drier conditions forecast over Europe under the high-pressure zone. But, we see wetter conditions forecast over the far northern parts of the UK and Scandinavia under the westerly flow of a low-pressure area far to the north.
Overall, the blocking high looks to bring a drought factor over a larger part of Central Europe, with a higher potential for heatwaves than normal.
UKMO SUMMER 2025 FORECAST
The second model of choice is UKMO, from the United Kingdom Met Office. This model has been a good performer over the past years. It often serves as a good complementary forecast to the ECMWF, with the real conditions being somewhere between both models.
The UKMO pressure anomaly forecast for August shows an indication of a low-pressure system sitting over northwestern Europe, and high-pressure zones to the east and west. This configuration would suggest frequent disturbances from the northwest into the central parts.
Looking at the temperature forecast, we can see warmer-than-normal weather over a large part of the continent. Peak warm anomalies are indicated over central and northern Europe, and a lesser anomaly over the UK, Ireland, and western Europe.
This forecast shows the impact of the low-pressure area over the northwest, as it spins counter-clockwise. That pushes a stronger southerly flow over central, eastern, and northern areas, and a westerly to northwesterly flow into western Europe with disturbances.
We can also see the impact of that low-pressure region in the precipitation forecast. There is an area of more rainfall over northern and northwestern Europe, driven by the low-pressure region over the northwest. Its impact also extends into central Europe, as it sends occasional disturbances from the northwest.
Southwestern and southeastern parts are forecast to be mostly drier than normal, as the main weather disturbances are focused on northern Europe and central parts.
To have a bit of variety in the forecast, we decided to also look at another long-range model that was also recently updated, the Canadian CANSIPS long-range prediction.
CANSIPS SUMMER FORECAST FOR EUROPE
Below is the 3-month average pressure forecast for Summer 2025 from the Cansips model. It shows a dominant high-pressure anomaly over north-central and northern Europe. While the forecast does not indicate a low-pressure area, one usually develops over southern and south-central Europe when a high-pressure area is centered this way.
The temperature forecast for the same period shows the above-normal temperatures over much of Europe, forced by the high-pressure area to the north. A cooler area is forecast towards the far east, under a more northerly flow on the eastern side of the high-pressure system, as it rotates clockwise.
In the precipitation forecast, you can see a broad area of less rainfall under the high-pressure system. But we see increased rainfall over the south-central parts and the Mediterranean, likely due to the low-pressure zone over the southern parts of Europe.
Overall, the CANSIPS forecast is perhaps closer to the ECMWF forecast and gives confidence for that scenario, which is why we also add it to the forecast. But it shows an unusually strong high-pressure system over Europe, with no properly defined low-pressure areas.
Make sure to bookmark our page. Also, if you have seen this article in the Google App (Discover) feed, click the like button (♥) there to see more of our forecasts and our latest articles on weather and nature in general.
SEE ALSO: A significant, unseasonably cold weather will spread across a large part of the U.S.