The silence before the massive clash of Arctic cold and the southern warmth is over. The significant disruption of the Polar Vortex has done its work: the behemoth Winter Storm Fern is on the way to bring wintry havoc, impacting 200 million people from Texas through New York and Boston.
A massive corridor of deep snow is set to bury cities from Oklahoma City to Boston, with the Northeast bracing for 15 to 30 inches by Monday evening. Further south, a dangerous ice storm is forecast to glaze up to an inch and a half across 1,800 miles stretch from the heart of Texas to the Virginia coast.
The intensity of the snowfall and major ice storm threatens to render de-icing and plowing efforts across hundreds of airports, effectively paralyzing the nation, which will likely cause 6,000 to 8,000 flight cancellations and widespread power outages over the weekend.
Fern has triggered the most extensive Winter Storm Warnings seen in nearly two decades.
*Note: This post is regularly updated as the system evolves. The most recent update is always at the top of the article. Feel free to bookmark the link and stay tuned.
The fierce Winter Storm Fern is clearly visible on satellite imagery, with a huge mass of moisture from the south and a rapid Arctic front and frigid cold air mass spreading south.
The image hints at a rough storm path for Monday evening.
Key Messages
Historic Magnitude: Fern represents the most widespread winter weather emergency since 2008, impacting 200 million people across two dozen states.
The Ice Storm 1,800-mile corridor: A long corridor of destructive freezing rain and black ice is forecast from North Texas into the Carolinas. Ice accumulations approaching 1.5 inches could overwhelm power infrastructure, snap trees and power lines, and paralyze transportation networks across the region.
The Snow Bomb and Infrastructure Paralysis: Up to 30 inches of snow and severe ice storms threaten widespread power outages and 6,000–8,000 flight cancellations from North Texas to the Northeast.
Frigid Cold: From Canada into the Midwest and the Great Lakes, a season’s record-breaking Arctic cold is turning wet roads into treacherous black ice, creating hazardous travel conditions that could last for days. A frigid cold air mass combined with winds will result in extreme windchill temperatures.
Widespread power outages and significant travel disruptions are forecast to ripple across two dozen states, affecting 200 million people from Texas to the Northeast U.S.
Whether you are in Dallas, Little Rock, Atlanta, or Washington, D.C., the time is running out to prepare for the massive Winter Storm Fern.
Winter Storm Preparation Checklist
- Fully charge mobile phones and all essential electronic devices
- Ensure flashlights are available and equipped with fresh batteries
- Store an adequate supply of water for drinking and cooking
- Maintain at least a one-week supply of food and essential medications
- Keep non-perishable food items and a manual can opener accessible
- Park vehicles away from trees and overhead power lines
Let’s get you prepared now.
Polar Vortex triggers frigid Arctic blast across North America, with impactful Winter Storm Fren crippling 200 million across the U.S.
A powerful Omega blocking High is parked over the Pacific Northwest and Alaska, acting as a dipole weather pattern with a deep Polar Low digging south from Arctic Canada into the United States to its east.
The Polar air mass also results in a major rise in surface high pressure, with a broad 1040-1050 mbar blocking high dominating most of Canada and the US for the following weekend into early next week.
This is a perfect scenario for significant cold advection from the south, as the Polar Vortex sends its southern lobe deep across North America.
And the clash of the frigid cold air mass with the warmer south is triggering a behemoth Winter Storm Fern.
A major snowstorm and dangerous freezing rain will bring weather havoc in two dozen states
A swath of deep snow will blanket millions from North Texas and Oklahoma, to the mid-Mississippi and Tennessee valley, the Mid-Atlantic, and the Northeast. Up to 2 feet of snow (15-30 inches) will be possible where the clash between the Polar front and the subtropical airmass from the Gulf will be most intense.
A broad corridor of deep snow is set to bury cities from Oklahoma City to Boston, grounding thousands of flights and causing severe travel disruptions.
South of the snow bomb, a narrow corridor of dangerous weather will form. With strong, warm advection in the midlevels and the polar air mass meeting the surface, it will result in a major ice storm across a 1,800-mile stretch, from East Texas across the southern States to the Carolinas.
Some areas along this broad swath of freezing rain, sleet, and ice storm would receive 1.5 inches of black ice.
While the core of Winter Storm Fern will bury tens of millions into deep snow, the impacts of the Fern’s icy side will lead to a major damaging event with significant tree damage, widespread power outages, major travel disruptions, and impassable roads.
The frigid cold spreads across the nations, bringing the season’s coldest Arctic outbreak
With the deep core of the Polar Vortex southern lobe aloft, the most significant Arctic air mass intrusion is blasting south across North America, sending tens of millions into a deep freeze.
The Polar front is now almost at the Gulf Coast as of Saturday midday.
The core of the Polar low is pretty intense, with frigid temperatures 40-50 °F below normal.
Sharp temperature drops are observed as the Arctic front grazes its path south across the CONUS, with temperatures 30-50 °F lower than those experienced just 24 hours ago.
The Cold will continue east-southeast behind the Winter Storm over the weekend, bringing frigid low temperatures into the Mid-Atlantic and the Southeast U.S.
Since there’s nothing to stop the extreme cold from reaching the Gulf Coast, the major Arctic cold pool will push temperatures 35-50 °F below normal in Texas and the South through Monday and Tuesday.
With strong winds behind the Polar front, extremely low windchill temperatures are forecast. Those will be in the -30 to -40 range across the northern and central U.S. into Canada, with local areas below -50 °F and low wind chills possible through Saturday.
A frigid cold air mass with dangerously low wind chill will also develop across the Midwest, the Great Lakes, and the Ohio Valley. Resulting in more lake-effect snow around the Lakes.
Looking ahead: A major Stratospheric Warming is foreseen in early February, potentially resulting in another significant disruption of the Polar Vortex.
See details below: Stratospheric Warming Alert: A Massive Shift in the Polar Vortex is Forecast for early February
Windy, PivotalWeather, and Wxcharts provided images used in this article.