Hurricane Helene: The Most Intense US Mainland Landfall of 2024

After an unusually slow period of tropical activity, the western Atlantic churned out hurricane Helene this Wednesday. It is forecast to reach major strength and grow into a very large hurricane, with landfall expected along the Gulf Coast in Florida Thursday night. This will be the most intense US mainland landfall of the 2024 season, and the impact will be extreme and devastating.

There is a high risk of a catastrophic storm surge along portions of the Florida Big Bend coast, where inundation could reach as high as 20 feet above ground level. This surge will be combined with destructive waves.

There is also a danger of a life-threatening storm surge along the remainder of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula.

Helene is the fifth hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic season. On average, the fifth Atlantic hurricane forms on 28 September.

Helene is forecast to make landfall Thursday night as a major hurricane in the Big Bend of Florida.

This will be the 4th Gulf Coast hurricane landfall in 2024. Only 5 other years on record (since 1851) have had 4+ Gulf hurricane landfalls: 1886, 1909, 1985, 2005, and 2020. In recent years, the following major continental US hurricane landfalls were: Laura, Zeta (2020), Ida (2021), Ian (2022), and Idalia (2023).

So far, there have been 8 tropical storms in the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, five of which became hurricanes, and one was a major hurricane—storm Beryl, which occurred in early July and was a Category 5.

Hurricane Helene is forecast to intensify rapidly before significantly impacting Florida and Georgia Thursday night.

Extremely hot, near-record-warm tropical Atlantic sea waters remain

In recent years, the so-called marine heat waves have become more frequent and intense. This year, they are more persistent and spread over large areas. Waters are extremely hot, especially across the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean.

The tropical central and western Atlantic regions remain well above normal as we are at the peak of hurricane season 2024. This comes after months of warmer-than-normal global seas, a hot summer, and a lack of storms in recent weeks.

This leads to extremely warm seas, which remain around 3-4 °C above normal across the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf.

One striking aspect is the so-called Ocean Heat Content (OHC), which measures the energy available in the waters that support deep convection in tropical storms and hurricanes. This year, it has been astonishingly high across the Gulf and Caribbean.

The following chart represents today’s western Atlantic OHC analysis. On Thursday, extremely high values that are ahead of Helene’s track will help the hurricane rapidly intensify.

Rapid intensification means that winds significantly increase within a 24-hour period. Helene is forecast to strengthen from Category 1 into a Category 4 major storm before it makes landfall in Florida’s Big Bend on Thursday night.

Destructive hurricane-force winds and storm surge for Florida and Georgia are expected

On Wednesday, the satellite presentation became impressive, with a ragged eye appearing in visible satellite imagery. The inner core of Hurricane Helene is forming, with central pressure steadily deepening and the wind field increasing.

The hurricane will intensify rapidly through Wednesday night into Thursday before accelerating towards landfall in Florida’s Big Bend on Thursday night. The impact will be extreme.

The landfall is forecast to occur in the evening hours on Thursday. Still, due to Helene’s expected large size, its effect will also be significant before the landfall and across a wide area. The quite fast-forward progress of Helene will also bring intense winds far inland into Georgia early Friday morning.

Most weather models forecast peak intensity at high-end Category 3 or a Category 4 storm.

Potentially catastrophic hurricane-force winds are expected within Helene’s eyewall when they land in the Florida Big Bend region late Thursday. Preparations to protect life and property should be completed early Thursday before tropical storm conditions arrive.

Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, will penetrate well inland over portions of northern Florida and southern Georgia late Thursday night, where Hurricane Warnings are in effect.

Strong wind gusts are also likely farther north across portions of northern Georgia and the Carolinas, particularly over the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians.

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), a catastrophic and deadly storm surge is likely along portions of the Florida Big Bend coast, where inundation could reach as high as 20 feet above ground level and destructive waves. There is also a danger of life-threatening storm surges along the remainder of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula.

Catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding, including landslides, is expected across portions of the southern Appalachians through Friday.

Considerable to locally catastrophic flash and urban flooding is likely for northwestern and northern Florida and the Southeast through Friday.

Widespread minor to moderate river flooding is likely, and isolated major river flooding is possible.

Safety Preparedness during a Hurricane Season

Have a plan

The official hurricane season in the North Atlantic and the Caribbean starts on June 1st and ends on November 30th. This is when you and your family must be prepared by planning.

Write emergency phone numbers and keep them on the refrigerator or near every phone in your house. It would help if you also programmed them into your cell phone.
Prepare an emergency supply kit.
Locate the nearest shelter in your area and different routes from your home in an emergency. If shelter locations in your area have yet to be identified, learn how to find them before the event of a storm.
Pet owners: Take care of your pets at pre-identify shelters, a pet-friendly hotel, or an out-of-town friend or relative where you can take your pets in case of an evacuation. Local animal shelters can offer advice on what to do with your pets if you are asked to evacuate your home during a hurricane.

Learn the difference between a hurricane “Watch” and “Warning”

When you listen to the National Weather Service alerts on TV or radio or check for them online, there are two kinds of alerts:

A hurricane watch means hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 miles per hour [mph] or higher) are possible in a stated area. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) will announce hurricane watches 48 hours before they expect tropical storm-force winds (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) to start.
A hurricane warning is a more severe threat. This means that hurricane-force winds are expected in a stated area. NHC issued these warnings 36 hours before tropical-storm-force winds were expected in the area to give people enough time to prepare for the storm.

Check out the National Weather Service’s Hurricane Center for more information about hurricane watches and warnings. If you hear a hurricane watch or warning in your area, you can take steps to get ready.

Get your car ready to leave home if needed

Make sure your car is ready before the tropical storm or hurricane hits.

Fill the gas in your car’s tank.
Move cars and trucks into your garage or under cover.
Always keep an emergency kit in your car.

If you don’t own a car, consider making plans with friends and family or call authorities to get a ride if you need to evacuate.

Get your family and pets ready

Go over your emergency plan with your family; understand everything.
Keep checking for weather updates about the storm. You can watch TV, listen to the radio, or check the NHC website online.
Call the hospital, public health department, or the police about special needs. If you or a loved one is older or disabled and won’t be able to leave quickly, get their advice on what to do.
Put pets and farm animals in a safe place.

Get your home ready

Clear your yard to ensure nothing could blow around during the storm and damage your home. Move bikes, lawn furniture, grills, propane tanks, and building materials inside or under the shelter.
Cover up house windows and doors. Use storm shutters or nail pieces of plywood to the outside window frames to protect your windows. This can help keep you safe from flying debris and pieces of shattered glass.
Be ready to turn off your power if you see flooding, downed power lines, or you have to leave your home. Switch your power off completely.
If you lose your water supply during the storm, fill clean containers with drinking water. You can also fill your sinks and bathtubs with water for washing.
Double-check your carbon monoxide (CO) detector’s battery to prevent CO poisoning.

Be ready to evacuate or stay at home

During a hurricane warning, always listen to authorities regarding whether you should evacuate or stay home.

If a hurricane is coming, you may hear an order from authorities to evacuate (leave your home). Never ignore an order to evacuate. Sturdy, well-built houses may not hold up against a hurricane’s power. Staying home to protect your property is not worth risking your family’s health and safety.

There are occasions when you may hear an order to stay at home. If driving conditions are too dangerous, staying home might be safer than leaving. Respect the authorities’ decisions.

If you need to evacuate:

Grab your emergency supply kit and only take what you need (cell phone, chargers, medicines, identification like a passport or license, and cash).
Unplug your appliances. If you have enough time, turn off the gas, electricity, and water.
Follow the roads emergency workers recommend, even if dense traffic is expected. Other routes might be blocked or already flooded. Never drive through flooded areas, as cars and other vehicles can be swept away or may stall in just 6 inches of moving water.
Contact your local emergency management office and ask if they offer accommodations for owners and pets.

If you need to stay home:

Keep your emergency supply kit anywhere where you can easily access it anytime.
Follow weather updates online from NHC, and listen to the radio or TV for updates on the hurricane.
Stay inside. Even if it looks calm, don’t go outside. Wait until you hear an official message that the hurricane is over. Sometimes, the weather gets calm in the middle of a storm but then quickly worsens again.
Stay away from windows. You could get hurt by flying debris, such as pieces of broken glass or other objects picked up by winds around the neighborhood during the storm. Stay in a room without windows or go inside a closet.
Be ready to leave home. If emergency authorities order you to leave or your home is severely damaged, you may need to go to a shelter or a neighbor’s house.

Our expert forecaster team will actively follow the tropical region activity worldwide, including Atlantic Basin systems and tropical cyclones likely to affect the United States, the Caribbean, and Europe again in the following months.

Stay tuned for further follow-up posts, in-depth forecast discussions, and nowcasting during the coming weeks and throughout the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season 2023 peak months. We will prepare you.

Windy, NHC, Colorado State University, Tropical Tidbits, and WHO provided images used in this article.