An active weather pattern continues across the United States, with yet another significant Winter Storm Nyla forecast from Tuesday through Thursday. On Wednesday, a bomb cyclone rapidly developed under a deep upper wave emerging over the central U.S. More heavy snow and blizzard conditions are expected for the Midwest.
From Monday through Wednesday, a pronounced wave will move from the West Coast across the Rockies into the Great Plains, intensifying snowfall along its path. Up to a foot of snow across the Midwest will be possible, with 2-3 feet in the Rockies.
The highest peaks in Colorado and Wyoming are forecast to receive the most significant snow. Across the Midwest, from Kansas to Nebraska, Iowa to Minnesota and Wisconsin, heavy snowfall and blizzard conditions will likely cause travel delays.
Our primary focus is Wednesday, when a significant frontal system will emerge into the Great Plains. A strengthening surface bomb cyclone with rapid pressure falls over the Midwest. Weather conditions will rapidly deteriorate, with a developing snow blizzard on the cold side of Winter Storm Nyla.
Deep waves keep the weather pattern across North America and the U.S. progressive this month. While we just had a wild and destructive severe weather outbreak over the weekend, yet another wave is emerging on the West Coast. On Sunday’s visible satellite, we can see it moving from the North Pacific into California.
The new West Coast wave will cross the central Rockies on Monday and Tuesday and deepen over the Great Plains on Wednesday. It will track across the Upper Midwest towards southern Ontario, Canada, on Thursday. At the surface, it will result in a rapidly deepening and intensifying winter storm Nyla.
The video animation below provides a quick overview of the storm dynamics across the Contiguous U.S. this week. An intense winter storm will push central pressure to near 985 mbar on Wednesday, producing more storms across the South and significant snow blizzards across the Midwest.
Let’s examine the details of Winter Storm’s evolution. Again, tens of millions along the storm’s path from the West Coast to the Upper Midwest will experience significant weather conditions from Monday through Thursday.
A new deep wave emerges into the central U.S., develops a significant Winter Storm Nyla on Wednesday
A deep upper wave that sat over the West Coast on Sunday will move east across the Rockies late Monday and Tuesday. It will then emerge over the Great Plains early Wednesday and begin its rapidly deepening phase.
A significant cold core will develop, introducing a sharp pressure and temperature gradient towards the ground.
An associated surface low will occur over Nebraska and Kansas early Wednesday morning, quickly pushing its central pressure down and continuing to strengthen into a Winter Storm, Nyla. The low will move east across the Midwest towards the western Great Lakes late Wednesday into Thursday.
It is forecast to reach a mature stage and deepen its central pressure to near 985 mbar or even lower by Wednesday morning, fully developed as a powerful winter storm. Weather conditions will be the most pronounced on the cold side of the low.
Early Wednesday morning, storm Nyla will be over eastern Kansas, with a cold air mass advecting across the Northern Plains towards the center low. On the cold side of the winter storm, snowfall will intensify across Kansas and Nebraska into western Iowa.
On Wednesday, the snow blizzard will significantly ramp up from northern Kansas across eastern Nebraska to southern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin. Strong to severe winds will cause intense snowfall with near-zero visibility.
In the wake of the deep low, a much colder air mass will be dragged from the north, introducing a sharp contrast towards the warmer side of the cyclone to the east. This is also why the weather conditions will be wild and rapidly changing while the winter storm advances across the Midwest on Wednesday.
Cold temperatures will be spread across the central Great Plains and Missisippi Valley. With strong to locally severe winds, real-feel windchill temperatures will be low.
Further east, a pretty warm Wednesday is expected ahead of the low across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast U.S., thanks to the strong warm advection from the south.
A significant amount of fresh snow is forecast to accumulate in the central Rockies as the frontal system travels across on Monday and Tuesday. Then, on Wednesday, a swath of deep snow is forecast from western Kansas across eastern Nebraska, western Iowa, and southern Minnesota and Wisconsin.
By Wednesday night, there will be around a foot of new snow locally, and high snow drifts from severe winds and blizzards will also occur.
Heavy snow will move along the storm’s core into southern Ontario, Canada, by Thursday.
The following 2m temperature chart indicates that strong winds will overspread the cold sector behind the surface low on Wednesday, pushing south across the Northern Great Plains.
Tight isolines across Iowa, Nebraska, and Kansas (yellow zone) also indicate that the snow blizzard will be intense. Expect significant traffic interruptions from heavy snow and near-zero visibility from blowing snow.
Further south and east, a much warmer air mass is seen across the warm sector, where additional thunderstorms are forecast along the leading cold front.
Cold weather spreads behind the frontal system and reaches Southeast U.S. and Florida
The winter storm Nyla will mature by midday Wednesday, meaning its central pressure will reach its lowest point. It will begin a weakening phase on Thursday as it moves across the Great Lakes into Southeast Canada.
The cold intrusion associated with the system will spread toward the Southeast United States by Thursday evening, bringing temperatures around 10 degrees below normal.
Thursday and Friday will be colder than the previous days, with temperatures 10 to 15 °F below average across the Southeast U.S. and the Gulf Coast. Florida will also be around 15 degrees colder than average on Friday morning.
We are closely monitoring the evolution of the ongoing pattern and will update you accordingly. Stay tuned.
Wxcharts, Windy, CyclonicWx, and Pivotalweather provided images used in this article.