*UPDATE* A very powerful CAT 4 hurricane Dorian continues towards Florida, but latest trends suggest it may shift towards SE US coast
Major hurricane Dorian is maintaining high-end CAT 4 strength with 150 mph (240 km/h) sustained winds, gusting up to 185 mph (300 km/h) with a central pressure of 945 mbar. Dorian will continue as a CAT 4 hurricane for at least another 48 hours – it may eventually even intensify into a Category 5 storm before it nears Florida. Latest model trends suggest Dorian may miss Florida and turn towards landfall in the SE US coast.
Some of the latest IR and VIS satellite imagery revealing quite an outstanding presentation! The eye has remained very distinct and is surrounded by a ring of very deep convection.
NOAA hurricane hunters continue scanning the hurricane with several aircraft, gathering important data needed for modeling the future track of Dorian. One can nicely see the very powerful flight level winds through the eyewall, being the strongest across SW, SE and NE quadrants this afternoon.
Automatic ADT (Advanced Dvorak Technique) calculation is showing strong CAT 3 strength of Dorian which is actually some underestimation against actual observation from the NOAA Hurricane Hunters.
If we look at the OHC maps (Ocan Heat Content) we can notice Dorian is coming into more favorable sea water temperature / dewpoint conditions now and through the next 48 hours. Potentially this could increase its strength additionally and Dorian could become a CAT 5 hurricane.
The future track of Dorian based on NHC forecast suggests it may eventually even miss the previously forecast track which was pointing towards its landfall in ESE Florida on Monday. Latest trends put Dorian’s track towards the SE US coast by mid next week. Various model track trends are attached as well – quite a significant change from yesterday’s forecast and that said, the exact track of Dorian is yet pretty uncertain!
Most of the models are maintaining high-end CAT 4 strength of Dorian for the next 3 days, while some hints of Dorian becoming a CAT 5 hurricane exist.
There is now an increasing risk of strong winds and dangerous storm surge along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina during the middle of next week. Heavy rains, capable of life-threatening flash floods are possible over coastal sections of the southeastern United States from Sunday through much of next week.
As we can see, the exact track of Dorian is yet to be defined and is still changing significantly. We are closely monitoring the evolution and will keep you updated – stay tuned!