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Tropical depression #Esther is moving back towards the Northern Territory, trends suggest the system might survive until New South Wales

A tropical depression #Esther has made the U-turn back towards southeast, and is now moving into the Northern Territory state again. Excessive rainfall threat continues along its path. Models are hinting the wave associated with this depression should maintain the suface low all the way until it reaches New South Wales later this week.

Satellite imagery indicates Esther is still quite large system with maintaining deep convective storms producing heavy and excessive rainfall. Upper-level outflow is healthy in equatorial direction.

Esther has resulted in very high amount of rain while travellling from the Gulf of Carpentaria across the Northern Territory into the northeast parts of Western Australia, 250-400 mm has accumulated in some areas. Attached are maps for Australia, Northern Territory and Western Australia state for the past week of precipitation.

What is lately becoming remarkable on the models is that #Esther might potentially cross the whole Australian continent. ECMWF model is simulating the impacts in every single state with its centre passing over every single state.

Here are the expected amount of rainfall through this week by global models ECMWF and GFS. They both are hinting the system with lots of rain could cross the continent and reach the state of New South Wales towards the weekend.

We will continue monitoring the system in the coming days, stay tuned for further updates!

See previous discussions:

*update* on the tropical depression 19P (ex #Esther) now moving along the Western Australia coast

*Update* on the ongoing tropical activity along northern Australia – #Ferdinand is weakening while #Esther continues with extreme rainfall and flooding potential

Tropical Cyclone #Esther is making landfall as a Category 1 system on the Mornington Island, Queensland, Australia this morning