VALID FOR 23-04-2014

A persisting blocking pattern is in place across Europe and an intense upper trough/low is crossing southern Mediterranean into southern Balkans, which will be the main focus on Wednesday. A cold front continues south across western Russia.

A SLGT risk has been issued for parts of S Italy, Ionian sea into NW Greece and southern Albania with threat for torrential rain, large hail, severe winds and tornadoes. Strong DCVA crossing the risk area duing the day provides strong QG lifting for storm initiation. Moderate instability coupled with strong shear will favour organized severe storms, including supercells.

The rest of Europe will see diurnally driven thunderstorms, posing some threat for marginal hail and flash floods in weak wind field environment, but quite strong (LL) buoyancy. This threat seems higher within the TSTM+ areas where also some funnel clouds / landspouts are not excluded along the SFC convergence zones as healthy LL lapse rates are present.