Mesoscale Discussion #002 (valid 18/05/2014 13-16 UTC)

Latest sfc data reveal a sharp stalled SFC boundary extending from eastern Ukraine across E Belarus into the Baltic States where SFC temperatures have rised into the upper 20s east of the boundary. SFC dewpoints along the boundary are ranging between 16 – 19° across E Ukraine and E Belarus which results in extreme instability in excess of 2500 J/kg locally. Strong backing SE-E winds at 10-15 kt are present over the discussion area. A deep layer shear of 30 – 50 knots overlaping with aforementioned instability. A very favorable veering vertical wind profiles should provide near 300 – 500 m2/s2 of SR 3km helicity. Conditions are there to support another explosive outbreak of severe storms within the next hour or two. These storms will be capable of producing very large hail, severe damaging winds and tornadoes where some of the could be strong intensity. Storms will tend to cluster into larger system of two towards the evening hours when spreading into the Baltics across the MDT+ area.