Extreme warmth will develop across the Arctic region this weekend, in response to a very strong upper ridge and high pressure system. Northern Atlantic, Iceland, Greenland, Faroe Islands, Scandinavia and Scotland will experience unusually warm weather for this time, with daytime temperatures 10-15 °C above normal.
The pattern evolving across Europe displays an extremely strong upper ridge centered over the Arctic region with several deep cyclones located to its west over the northern Atlantic. Together with powerful high pressure system across the northern Europe, this results in a sharp pressure / temperature gradient right across Iceland. A very strong southern jet stream will advect additional warm airmass towards already very warm weather caused by significant subsidence beneath the upper ridge. Mid-level temperatures will be even higher than 16 °C above normal for mid November!
Detailed 6-hour sequence of temperatures across Iceland (maps provided by www.vedur.is) is revealing an extremely warm airmass for Iceland for mid November. Temperatures could locally exceed 15 °C, especially in the valleys and fjords across the northern and western parts where dry Föehn winds will have the maximum effects.
Powerful southeast winds are expected across whole Iceland starting Friday, Nov 16th afternoon and persist through Saturday, Nov 17th. Locally, peak gusts could reach 140 km/h or even higher in narrow valleys and fjords, as well as across the highlands.
While nothing unsual for Iceland regarding the wind threat, the significant warming comes after cold and blowing snow days this week. Night from Friday to Saturday will be very warm across the western half of island, many areas should experience windy conditions and temperatures above 10 °C.
Stay tuned for nowcasting post when event occurs late tomorrow.
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